Department of Statistics

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Statistical Analysis of the Average Life of Electric Bulbs: A Comparative Study
(University of Rajshahi, 1991) Islam, Md. Aminul; Mian, Md. Abul Basher
This thesis -- 'Statistical Analysis of the Average Life of Electric Bulbs: A comparative study' consists of six chapters of which chapter four and five are contributory, chapter six on the summary conclusion of the thesis. First three chapters of the thesis are introduction and discussions on the selection of a life testing model and the underlying methods of statistical inferences which has been used in the subsequent chapters towards the contribution in the' thesis. The introductory chapter one contains a statement of the problem we have undertaken a brief review of earlier studies and exploration of the possibilities of further work in relation to the present study, aims and scope of the study. It also provides a brief discussion on the concept of life testing and reliability and distributions of life times. A survey of some basic life testing models which has been used in contributory chapters has also been appended in this chapter. Chapter two of this thesis is devoted on discussions on the selection of a. life testing model to suit the analysis and prediction for a particular set of data. Almost all life testing data available for analysis and prediction are incomplete or censored. Most of the tools and techniques available in life testing literature for discriminating between competing life testing models are sensitive to the nature and size of censoring……………………..
Demography of Aging : Lessons from Bangladesh
(University of Rajshahi, 2001) Hossain, Md. Ripter
The aging of population is thought to be the outcome of interplay between fertility and mortality. So is the case with Bangladesh. In the face of socio-economic transformations that are taking place in Bangladesh, it is assumed that the demographic transition what has been underway in the country in recent years affects the upper age spectrum of the population and has resulted in increase of the older persons of age 60 and over. However, the demographic consequences of changing population age structure and the growing number of older persons are yet to fully understood. The present study is an attempt to explore the causes and consequences of population aging in Bangladesh. The aim of the study is to explore the current situation and future trend of population aging under the changing condition of demographic variables, specifically, fertility and mortality. The objectives of the study are: ■ to look at the change in the level and pattern of fertility and mortality and their effect on the age structure of the population, ■ to examine the impact of undergoing demographic transition on aging of population, ■ to investigate the current age-sex structure of the aged population and to asses future trend under various demographic alternatives and ■ to understand the consequences of population aging in the country. The study has been based on secondary sources of data. The secondary data have been taken from different published and unpublished sources. These are Vital Registration, Population Census, Demographic Survey of East Pakistan, Population Growth Estimation Experiment, National Impact Survey, Bangladesh Retrospective Survey on Fertility and Mortality, Bangladesh Fertility Survey, Bangladesh Contraceptive Prevalence Survey, Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey, Demographic Surveillance System and some others. Besides these sources, data are also taken from United Nations publications. The study has been carried out on the basis of such demographic indicators as crude birth rate, crude death rate, total fertility rate, median age, age and sex composition, marital status, life expectancy, and so on. The study has analyzed the demographic transition caused by reduction in fertility and mortality and also identify the factors affecting the aged population. To estimate and project the aged population, the models viz. Exponential growth model, Modified exponential growth model, Geometric model, Makeham's model and Logistic model have been used. The study has estimated and projected mid-year female population of Bangladesh by age group during 1991-2021 and through applying Frejka's component method in Leslie matrix form. Finally, Cohort component method has been used to estimate and project the mid-year total population of Bangladesh by age group. The expected trend in aging of population of Bangladesh reveals a clear increasing level in aging population both in case of males and females. As regards age structure it is found that the elderly population( 60+) has increased by 1 percent during 1911 to 1991. The projected figure of elderly population in Bangladesh shows that the size of the elderly population is expected to increase from nearly 6.02 million in 1996 to 7.78 million in 2006. It is also evident that there is a consistent increase in the proportion of aged 60+ compared to the population in those of young and adult age groups. Thus older population of Bangladesh is going to increase remarkably between the next two decades from 2010 to 2030. The exponential growth rate of elderly population in Bangladesh is lower than the other Asian countries. With regard to demographic change the crude birth rate has reduced to as low as 25.6 percent in 1996 from 53.8 percent in 1901. The total fertility rate has also declined with narrow amplitude. It has reduced from 6.78 in 1961 to 3.41 in 1996. Comparison of crude birth rate with the proportion of aged population reveals an inverse relationship between the two. So is the case between the aged population and total fertility. With the decline of total fertility, the aged population would gradually increase. Crude death rate has also an uninterrupted declining trend over the period of the study. Reduction of mortality has however been the important factor in triggering off the rapid growth of population in Bangladesh. Again a considerable decline in infant mortality is noticed in the second half of the twentieth century. Infant mortality reduced to 67 deaths per 1000 live births in 1996 against 140 in 1960. As regards crude death rate and expectation of life at birth, there is a close relationship between the two variables. The average length of life has increased more than double in this century from 24 years in 1901 to 59 years in 1996. The relation of crude death rate with aged population reveals that about 77 percent variation in the proportion of aged population is explained by crude death rate. About 99 percent variation in such proportion is explained by expectation of life at birth. As regards to nuptiality, significant changes in marital composition and in the mean age at marriage are noticed. The mean age at marriage of females has increased to 20.1 years in 1996 as against 12.6 years in 1931 and for males to 27.8 years from 19.0 years during the same period. Both the factors are closely related to fertility thereby affect the aging of population. Estimate and projection of the aged population reveal that in next 20 years their number will exceed nearly one crore and in the mid of the next century the elderly( older persons) is expected to increase nearly 205 times than today. The aged population of Bangladesh will increase gradually up to 2021 and thereafter it will increase remarkably between 2021 to 2051 about 4.6 times by the end of 2051 from the figure of 1981. Thus, we have clear evidence that the aging of population that is taking place in the country can be accounted for the transition of both fertility and mortality i.e. the demographic transition vis-a-vis changes in the age structure. In view of growing number of elderly m Bangladesh, the aged population gradually emerges as a vulnerable group in our society. The well-being of the older person requires formulation of appropriate polices and programmes through a clear understanding of the problems, needs, and demands of this vulnerable group, their status and functions in the family and society, their living arrangement, support systems, economic activity, potentiality and so on. Population aging in Bangladesh is becoming a serious concern for the development agendas. The issue should be dealt with much care. The rapid rate of aging of population and the growing cohorts of older persons have particular implications for the development of the country including increasing economic dependency and rising incidence of care giving to older persons by the traditional social unit, the family. Maintenance of joint family system could be a policy option.
Modelling of Diabetes Mellitus Data
(University of Rajshahi, 2002) Sultana, Mst. Papia; Mian, M.A. Basher
Diabetes afflicts a large number of people of all social conditions throughout the world. So, it is a major health problem of all the countries of the world including Bangladesh. Inspite of increasing advances in the past several years in almost every field of diabetes research and patient care, the personal and public health problem of diabetes, already of vast proportion, continuously increasing day by day. The scale of the problem that diabetes poses to world health is still widely under recognized. Recent estimates predict that if current trends continue the number of persons with diabetes will be more than double, from 140 million to 300 million in the next 25 years. The greater proportion of the increase is likely to occur in the developing countries, which are the communities who can least afford it [Source: http://www.who.int/ncd/dia/index.htm]. Bangladesh also possess the same picture. Surveys conducted by DAB ( 1995) reveals that the number of diabetic patients in Bangladesh is 1 to 1.5 percent of the total population. The rate is higher in the urban and industrial areas, perhaps the cause is to adequate physical work of rural areas.
The Role of High Leverage Points in Regression Diagnostics
(University of Rajshahi, 2003) Khan, Md. Ashraful Islam; Imon, A. H. M. Rahmatullah
In fitting a linear regression model by the least squares’ method, leverage values play a very important role. They often fo1m the basis of regression diagnostics as measures of influential observations in the explanatory variables. Much work has been done on the detection of high leverage values and a good number of diagnostic measures are now available in the literature. But neither of these methods is effective in the identification of high leverage points when multiple high leverage points are present in the data. In our study we proposed a new method for the identification of multiple high leverage points. The usefulness of this newly proposed method is studied under a variety of leverage structures through Monte Carlo simulation experiments. We also investigated the performance of the newly proposed method as a remedy to multi collinearity problem caused by the presence of multiple high leverage points.
Prediction of Adult Stature of Japanese Boys and Girls
(University of Rajshahi, 2003) Rahman, J.A.M. Shoquilur; Ali, Md. Ayub
The longitudinal growth of individual's stature of the present study was characterized from early childhood to adulthood. The samples used here were 509 males and 311 females. A triphasic generalized logistic model (BTT model) and diphasic growth model (JPA-2 model) applied respectively on the above two sets of data through the software AUXAL for characterizing individual growth of stature. The default values of the population mean and covariance matrix in AUXAL for both the models were substituted by estimated population mean and covariance matrix based on Japanese population. The individuals without mid growth spurt for both sexes show that predicted adult stature (PAS) was significantly positive correlated with stature at onset of adolescent and adolescent growth phases, and for only girls VTO and PHV was positively correlated. The individuals with mid growth spurt for both sexes show that PAS was significantly positively correlated with statures at early childhood minimum, mid-childhood maximum, onset of adolescent and adolescent growth phases. Also positive significant correlations were found between VECM and VMC, VTO and PHV but in case of PHV and VMC, negative significant correlation was found. On the basis of JPA-2 model the mean adult stature were 171.27cm for Japanese boys and 158.51 for Japanese girls. On the basis of BTT model this study demonstrates that, on average, 46. 1 %, 39.5%, and 14.4% of the total adult stature were completed during early, middle and adolescent phase of growth, respectively, for the Japanese male population. For the female population, these percentages were 42.6%, 44.6%, and 12.8%, respectively. The distributions of predicted stature that do not have the mid growth spurt, on average, shows that the Japanese girls become taller than boys from age 1 to 5 and 10 to 12, and then again become shorter than boys. The distributions of predicted stature that have the mid growth spurt, on average, shows that the Japanese girls become taller than boys from age 8 and 11 to 12, and then again become shorter than boys. Japanese boys who do not have the mid growth spurt are, on average, 13.26 cm taller than their opposite sex. Moreover, Japanese boys who have the mid growth spurt are, on average, 13. 77 cm taller than their opposite sex. Several equations, after removing the problem of outliers and influential data points, are proposed to predict the adult stature of the Japanese based on growth parameters and statures at different ages.
Demand for a Child in Bangladesh: A Multivariate Statistical Analysis
(University of Rajshahi, 2004) Sarkar, Saroje Kumar; Mian, M. A. Basher
In Bangladesh, children especially sons are considered as an important part of standard of living as well as "poor man's capital". In this study an attempt is made to highlight some socioeconomic and demographic factors, which are affecting the demand for a child. Based on the findings, recommendations are given so that policy makers may take remedial measures to strengthen family planning program efforts, for accelerating the rate of fertility decline to achieve replacement level as early as possible. It is observed that for achieving the replacement level fertility, the family planning program should be strengthened among the ever-married women under age 30 due to the population momentum. The probability of demand for an additional child is significantly higher in Chittagong and Sylhet division than that in Rajshahi and Khulna division. Demand for an additional child is lower among working women than among housewives. The findings indicate that whenever gender preferences would be eliminated, the percentage of women who did not demand more children would be increased approximately by 10 percent. The findings also suggest that further increase in the contraceptive prevalence rates in the country may become increasingly more difficult unless there is a decline in the latent demand for male children. Therefore, we conclude that further reduction of fertility to achieve replacement level is unlikely without considerable reduction in the demand for male children and policy makers should emphasize those policies that actively enhance women's status through education as well as involving them in the workforce in the country and change attitudes towards girl children.
Correlates of High-Risk and Low-Risk Childbearing Pattern in Bangladesh
(University of Rajshahi, 2004) Chowdhury, Md. Abdul Mazed; Abedin, Samad
Childbearing in human population can be classified as early, on-time and delayed in context of age of a woman or a group of women. While on-time childbearing involves less risk, both early and delayed childbearing involve high-risk also involves in having children in quick succession as well as in having children more than three or four. Thus, childbearing occurs early or late, in quick succession and at higher parity (more than 3 or 4) involves high-risk and beyond these have some low-risk. Admitting that every pregnancy expulsion involves risk -more or less. The present study is an attempt to analyse the childbearing pattern that are termed as high-risk and low-risk and try to isolate the factors that discriminate and affect significantly the high-risk and low-risk pattern in the context of age, parity and birth interval. Methodology The study uses 17 variables that include age of women, parity, birth interval, age at marriage, age at first birth, duration of conjugal life, surviving children, child loss experience, duration of breastfeeding, contraceptive use, spousal age difference, place of residence, religion of women, education of women, education of husband, women's working status and occupation of husband. Such data are available from the 1999-2000 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BOHS) implemented through a collaborative effect of the National Institute of Population Research and Training (NIPORT), Mitra and Associates, and ORC Macro (USA). Multi-stage random sampling was used to obtain the data. Data were obtained from all the administrative geographical divisions of Bangladesh. A total of 10,544 ever-married women aged 10-49 were interviewed to collect data concerning fertility levels, contraceptive, infant mortality levels to improve the lives of mothers and children. Aside from rates and ratios used in the analysis of data, the study uses x2-analysis to list the association between the attributes of risk of childbearing classified as high-risk and low-risk in terms of age, birth interval and parity and indicates socio-economic and demographic phenomena. The study further uses two sophisticated statistical techniques namely, discriminant and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Findings It is evident that childbearing performance varies greatly with differences in religion, education, residential status and so on. Majority of women (78 percent) are not currently working outside home. A considerable 70 percent of women live in rural area. About 43 percent of the study population has no formal education. The data shows that mean age at first marriage is 14.9 years while more than 50 percent were married before the age of 15 years and 80 percent of Bangladeshi women marry when they are still teenagers, which increases the likelihood of their having high-risk births in the absence of contraceptive use before the first birth. In most cases, the first birth occurs between ages 17 and 19, the median age at first birth is 17-18 for all women aged 20 and older. The results indicate that childbearing of adolescent mothers have on average, shorter birth interval (less than 24 months) than their adults counterparts. Nearly one in six children are born after a "too short" interval (less than 24 months). Although, the median birth interval is 39 months, younger women have shorter birth intervals than older women. The median birth interval for women age 15-19 is 27 months, compared with 48 months for women over age 40. The mean number of children ever born to currently married women is 3.13, while it is 2.58 for all women aged 15-49. It was found that the variables viz., education of women, contraceptive use, women's working status, occupation of husband, duration of conjugal life, child loss experience, age at first marriage, age at first birth, duration of breastfeeding and surviving children are the most significantly associated corresponding to age, parity and birth interval. The variables that significantly discriminate the high-risk childbearing from the low-risk childbearing are age at first marriage, duration of conjugal life, age at first birth, contraceptive use, child loss experience, surviving children, education of women, place of residence, women's working status, spousal age difference, occupation of husband and duration of breastfeeding. It was also found that the most important significant variables that influence both the high-risk and the low-risk childbearing are age at marriage, place of residence, education of women, duration of conjugal life, child loss experience, age at first birth, working status of women, and duration of breastfeeding, contraceptive use and occupation of husband.
Modeling of Development and Carbon Dioxide Emission in Bangladesh: A Bootstrap Approach
(University of Rajshahi, 2006) Sharker, Md. Abu Yushuf; Nasser, M.; Razzaque, M. A.
In the thesis we study the relationship between CO2 emission per capita and GDP per capita in context of Bangladesh. First, exploratory data analysis (EDA) is used to uncover the hidden information carried by the observed data. Au attempt is made to fit Environmental Kuznets Curve model by means of classical techniques as well as bootstrap techniques. EDA shows that both CO2 Emission per capita and GDP per capita are trended. There is no steady state of the variables within their sample period. This variable does not follow EKC. To test the presence of stochastic trend of the variables we use unit root tests. To mitigate small sample limitations of our data we first design a simulation based study to compare the performance of classical tests with bootstrap tests. Our simulation based result provides that CADF (Covariate Augmented Dickey Fuller Test) test has higher power and BCADF (Bootstrapped CADF) test has less size distortion for testing unit root for small sample of size 30. Unit root tests suggest that both the series are non stationary, i.e., CO2 is accumulating in the atmosphere and GDP is also experiencing accumulation. In the succession of time series modeling ARIMA model is fitted to both of the series. Both CO2 emission per capita and GDP per capita of Bangladesh follow ARIMA (0, 1, 1) model. Forecasting by bootstrap produces better results sometimes. In quest of dynamic regression model co integration is checked. Classical, bootstrap and double bootstrap techniques are used to test whether there exists any co integrating relationship among CO2 emission per capita, GDP per capita and it's square. Result shows that these variables are non stationary but not co integrated. There exists no long run equilibrium relationship between CO2 emission per capita and GDP per capita.
Anthropometric Study of the Shantal Community in Rajshahi District
(University of Rajshahi, 2006) Karim, Md. Rezaul; Islam, Md. Nurul; Ali, Md. Ayub
The aim of the thesis was to study Anthropometric variables sta􀀊ure, body weight, body mass index (BMI), sitting height and chest circumference, to find their relationships with some of the demographic and Socio-economic variables of Shantal community in Rajshshi District, Bangladesh. The_demographic and socioeconomic variables were collected through a questionnaire (in Appendix-I). Anthropometric measurements were taken by the· author himself. The cluster sampling technique was applied. The sample size were 396 for male and 438 for female. The present study demonstrated that the average stature, body weight, sitting height and chest circumference of young Shantals were increasing comparatively with those of oldest Shantals. Almost every Shantals were very lean and thin and stature, body weight, sitting height, and chest circumference of Shantals were positively and significantly related to each other. The present study indicated that the female onset of menarche of Shantals community reached earlier who were heavier and became late menarche who were both taller and thinner. Also lower BMI of female Shantals were reached age at menarche earlier than those of larger BMI. Also, age at menarche was earlier for those whose family income were higher and was late for those whose family income were lower and the onset of menarche reached earlier than those who have fewer number of sibling. Through the logistic regression, the present study suggest that the stature of literate male Shantals were shorter than the stature of illiterate Shantals and their differences were signHicant (p<0.05). The body weight and occupation were negatively associated but their differences were insignificant. The stature of literate female Shantals were higher than the stature of illiterate female Shantals and the body weight of female labors were lower than the body weight of non-labor female Shantals with significant differences. Sexual differences among stature, body weight and BMI of Shantals were found and the male Shantals were taller in stature and heavier in body weight than female Shantals and female Shantals were lean and thin. Government should take favorable view and necessary co-operations for their better health, social and economic management.
Statistical Study of Child Growth: A Case Study of Rajshahi City
(University of Rajshahi, 2008) Pervin, Mst. Khurshida; Mian, Md. Abul Basher; Ali, Md. Ayub
Longitudinal data on 11 preselected variables of child growth was collected during the period of 25 May to 17 December, 2002 for a group of children from birth to 48 months of age from the study area. The study started with 296 children. There was about 38% loss of the study children during the 4 years of study. Finally, we have 169 children. Details of data collection and the underlines problems are given in Chapters 3 and 4. Chapter 5 of this dissertation is a contributory one which contains findings of the study. Fourteen tables and 14 charts are appended in this chapter. This tables and charts explain the growth patterns of children in study area. The most interesting of the findings are that growth patterns show two remarkable drifts, one just before the age of 1 year and the second just after the age of about 30 months which are absent in standard growth charts like that of CDC and WHO. There is another interesting finding, that is right and left wrist-elbow length differs by more than 2 cm among the children of the study area. There are some other variations in the growth velocities within and between the sexes. Chapter 6 is the concluding remarks where major findings, short coming of the study and scope for further research, specially the impact of varying sample size,socio-economic, environmental, nutritional variables, seasonality of birth, reproductive health, etc may be studied.
Covariates of Early Childbearing in Bangladesh
(University of Rajshahi, 2008) Islam, Md. Roshidul; Islam, Md. Nurul; Abedin, Samad
Early childbearing means the early growth that is the growth capacity of teen age’s women. It is apparent that early childbearing vary with varying demographic and socio-economic variables. Very little attention is given as to how to capture the pattern of early childbearing with respect to age, age at marriage, duration of marriage, children ever born as well with varying socio-economic situation like education of women, education of husband and working status of women and so on. Among the studies available, most of the focus on the consequence for developed countries. Since relatively lower attention has been given to one of the major influential factors of fertility decline in Bangladesh, the early childbearing. Early childbearing in human population is the achieved fertility of a woman or a group of women less than 20 years of age. While On-time childbearing involves less, both early and delayed childbearing involve high-risk also involves in having children in quick succession as well as in having children more than three or four. Thus childbearing occurs early or late, in quick succession and at higher parity (more than 3 or 4) involves high-risk and beyond these have some low-risk. Admitting that every pregnancy expulsion involves risk - more or less. The present study is an attempt to analyze the childbearing pattern that are termed as high-risk and low-risk and try to isolate the factors that discriminate and affect significantly the high-risk and low-risk pattern in the context of current age of women. Methodology The study uses 11 variables that include age of women, age at first marriage, duration of marriage, contraceptive use, place of residence, religion, education of women, education of husband, women's work status, occupation of husband and total children ever born. Such data are available from the 2004 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) implemented through a collaborative effect of the National Institute of Population Research and Training (NIPORT), Mitra and Associates, and ORC Macro (USA). Multi-stage random sampling was used to obtain the data. Data were obtained from all the administrative geographical divisions of Bangladesh. A total of 11440 ever-married women aged 10-49 were interviewed to collect data concerning fertility levels, contraceptive, infant mortality levels to improve the lives of mothers and children. There are 1703 ever-married women are eligible for our study ( <20 years) out of 11440. Aside from rates and ratio used in the analysis of data, the study uses x2-analysis to test the association between the attributes of risk of childbearing classified as high-risk and low-risk in terms of age indicates socioeconomic and demographic phenomena. The study also employed by two sophisticated statistical techniques namely, discriminant and logistic regression analysis. Findings It is evident that early childbearing performance vanes greatly with differences in religion, education residential status and so on. Majority of women (90.5 percent) are not currently working outside home. A considerable 70.8 percent of women live in rural area. About 28.1 percent of the study population has no formal education. About 65.6 percent women do not use contraceptive methods. It was found that the variables viz., education of women, contraceptive use, women's working status, occupation of husband, duration of marriage, age at first marriage are the most significantly associated. The variables that significantly discriminate the high-risk childbearing from the low-risk childbearing are marital duration, age at marriage, mother's education, place of residence, women's work status, religion and contraceptive use. It was also found that the most significant variables that influence both the high-risk and low-risk childbearing are marital duration, contraceptive use, mother's education, age at marriage, religion, place of residence and women work status.
Robust Diagnostic Deletion Techniques in Linear and Logistic Regression
(University of Rajshahi, 2008) Nurunnabi, Abdul Awal Md.; Nasser, Mohammed
Identification of unexpected observations is a topic of great attention in modem regression analysis. At the beginning statisticians differ but now they recognize robust regression and regression diagnostics are two complementary remedies to study unusual observations. We use both of them for identifying irregular observations at a time. We find out the group deletion diagnostic methods that show better performance for identifying influential observations in linear regression. These are based on robust regression and/or relevant diagnostic methods so that these are free from huge computational tasks and reliable in presence of masking and/or swamping because of prior suspect-group identification. We find a technique that performs well in case of large number and high-dimensional data sets. We have done a classification task of unusual observations in linear regression according to their nature of consequences on the analysis, and model building process. At the same time the method performs well for identifying influential observations. This method may be a good addition to the existing graphical literature. We have seen that our proposed procedures in linear regression are also effective to the logistic regression after some modification and development to the existing identification techniques in linear regression. Our further contribution is to propose two new identification techniques for influential observations in logistic regression. The new methods show efficient performance for the proper identification of unusual observations and thereby provide less misclassification error in the response variable for the binomial logistic regression. Summarizing all the above issues we can say that we have made contribution in three areas: identification of influential observations in linear regression, classification of unusual observations in linear regression, and identification of unusual observations in logistic regression.
Factors Affecting Infant and Child Mortality in Bangladesh: A Multivariate Analysis
(University of Rajshahi, 2008) Islam, Md. Mogibul; Islam, Md. Nurul
The reduction of infant and child mo11ality in the developing countries is one or the most substantial achievements of human kind. However, in spite of various effective intervention programs, the infant and child mortality are considerably high in Bangladesh. Therefore, in this study, an attempt has been made to assess the levels, patterns and determinants of mortality in Bangladesh utilizing nationally representative data from Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) 2004. The purpose of this study is also to identify user-related factors, which influence the infant and child mortality in Bangladesh. Differential pattern in infant and child mortality in Bangladesh is examined using bi variate analysis, logistic regression analysis and also factor analysis in multivariate approach. The study results show that several socioeconomic, demographic and household variables affect infant and child mortality. These are: place of residence, division, mother's education, father's education, father's occupation, age of mother at birth of child, sex of child, preceding birth interval, availability of electricity, sources or drinking water, toilet facilities, exposure to mass media i.e., radio, TV and floor/wall/roof materials. Multivariate analysis results indicate that type of place of residence, sex of child, mother's education, father's occupation and division are important factors that have significant influence on infant and child mortality. Ti1e most significant predictors of neonatal, post-neonatal and infant mortality are mother's education and father's occupation. Father and mother's education both are persistent socioeconomic predictors of mortality. Construction materials of wall of houses are found significant for neonatal mortality. Floor materials are found significant for infant mortality. Furthermore, differential analysis shows that, male children experienced substantially higher mortali1y than female children did at neonatal, infantile and child periods but in post-neonatal period the relationship is opposite.
Impact of Socio-Economic and Demographic Variables on Human Fertility Behaviour-A Multivariate Statistical Analysis
(University of Rajshahi, 2009) Mahmud, Md. Nasim; Hossain, Md. Golam
The purpose of this study is to explore the possibility of further fertility decline in Bangladesh, with special attention to the role that might be played by improvements in socio-economic and demographic variables. In particular, researcher has attempted to estimate that after how long, and under what conditions, fertility rate should be taken for Bangladesh to reach replacementlevel fertility (2.1 children per woman). The medium-variant scenario of the United Nations projection indicates that Bangladesh will achieve replacement-level fertility around 2025-2030 (United Nations, 1999, 2001 ). Researcher assess whether the analysis yields a similar conclusion. The rapid decline of fertility, from over 6.5 births per woman to 3.3 births, in the last two decades in Bangladesh is, indeed, a historic record in demographic transition. The country is poor and has remained traditional and conservative. Although the extent and rapidity of the decrease in fertility have been very impressive by international standards, continued fertility decline is desirable, as population crowding, environmental deterioration, massive migration from rural areas to unplanned urban settings, and rapid depletion of resources are becoming acute. However, recent statistics suggest that, despite a continuing increase in contraceptive use, the fertility decline in Bangladesh has been stalled. The present study covers a period of about 30 years, from 1975 to 2004. The study is based on the analysis of secondary data sources mainly obtained from 1993-1994, 1996-1997, 1999-2000 and 2004 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys (BDHSs) and 1975 and 1989 Bangladesh Fertility Surveys (BFSs). The time series data has been taken from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) from 1985 to 2005, although the number of time series data is small, the annual data of Bangladesh for population studies are limited. In addition, data from the 1981, 1986 and 1991 Bangladesh Contraceptive Prevalence Surveys (CPSs) are also utilized. The samples of these surveys are nationally representative in scope and contain socio-economic and demographic information of individuals. Analyzing these data researcher has tried to focus on the past, present and future fertility situation of Bangladesh in connection with socio-economic and demographic variables based on several multivariate statistical analyses namely, logistic regression model, path model, Bongaarts' proximate determinants of fertility model and time series. It is found from the logistic regression model that the age at marriage, educational level, region, mass media, contraceptive method and child mortality are most influential variables on human fertility behaviour. It suggests that socioeconomic development policies as educational level, region, mass media and demographic indicators as age at first marriage, contraceptive method and child mortality giving special emphasis may produce significant desired effects with regard to fertility control in the national level of Bangladesh. The path analysis reveals that there are regional variations in fertility among the six administration divisions of Bangladesh due to some particular socio-economic and demographic variables. It demonstrates while one of the strategies to reduce fertility should be bringing down the desired family size, other strategies to narrow the gap of the regional variations should include efforts to increase education for female to reduce the preference for male children and to lower infant and child mortality, as well as to promote the effective use of contraceptives. Without a rapid improvement of these factors, it would be difficult to achieve replacement level fertility in near future. Bongaarts' model is applied to estimate the fertility inhibiting effect of four important proximate determinants: marriage, contraception, abortion and lactational infecundability. The model clearly indicates that there is a downward trend in all the proximate indices. Data on induced abortion are not available. So, its effect on the model is about to be immeasurable. Abortion is a sensitive issue in Bangladesh, and many women who have an abortion do not disclose this to others, particularly to outsiders. This makes the situation extremely difficult to get a clear picture of abortion from survey data in this country. Bongaarts' model indicates marriage variable made significant contributions to the overall fertility reduction. Contraceptive use has the highest impact on the total reduction of fertility which may be attributed to the increasing use of contraception from 7% in 1975 to 48.5% in 2004. The average estimated effect of lactational infecundability plays an important role in reducing fertility in Bangladesh. The analysis also shows that a downward effect on fertility at young ages caused by rising age at marriage has been balanced by an upwards effect at older ages caused by decreasing widowhood and divorced. Researcher suggests from the Bongaarts' model that the governmental policies can concentrate on effectively and efficiently increasing contraceptive utilization and effectiveness, on encouraging breastfeeding and on rising the age of marriage. One of the most interesting parts of this study that the researcher has developed a time series model to estimate after how long and under what conditions Bangladesh will achieve the replacement level of fertility (2.1 children per woman). Research has compared the time frame to reach the replacement level of fertility with the medium-variant scenario of the United Nations projection that Bangladesh will achieve replacement level of fertility around 2025-30 (UN, 1999, 2001 ). The research has found the similar result to reach the fertility rate of Bangladesh at the replacement level as the United Nations target year. Researcher has suggested that the total fertility rate (TFR) of Bangladesh will reach at the replacement level within the desired time period around 2025-2030 and to do so the government shall have to take necessary action- to increase mean age at marriage of female to be 20.3 years; to increase labor force participation of female to be 43.5%; and to decrease infant mortality rate per 1000 live births at 35.6. Lastly, it is shown from the study that the fertility rate has remained almost same in the national level of Bangladesh for a long time. But it is also found from the study that fertility rate has reached near to the replacement level in the few divisions of Bangladesh. It is really a matter of hope for us. Being greatly encouraged. Researcher would like to suggest that the regional key measures, responsible for achieving the replacement level of fertility rate must be found out, analyzed and researched and finally applied in other divisions of the country. By doing these, we can reach to our goal to the replacement level of fertility
Pattern of Migration in Joypurhat District of Bangladesh: A Case Study
(University of Rajshahi, 2010) Talukder, Md. Ashraful Alom; Hossain, Md. Ripter; Rahman, Md. Mostafizur
This study is based on primary data. The primary data were collected from Joypurhat district by PPS sampling method. The main purpose of this study is to identify the effects of demographic and socio-economic variables on rural migration, trends and volume of migration and constructed some probability models on such data in J oypurhat district, Bangladesh. Both unvaried and multivariate techniques have been used to study the differentials and determinants of migration. The study reveals that the migration rate was found significantly higher for the people age groups 15-29 (about 28 per cent). The age distribution of migrants clearly shows that majority of them were very young at the time of their first migration. Education of migrants show that the 58 per cent of migrants were passed both SSC to graduate and above. The pre-migration occupation are 41 per cent of migrants were involved with studies, but after migration it was found 48 per cent of migrants were employed in job/service. In study area we found that about 44 per cent of migrants were migrated in Dhaka city. We also observed that more than 51 per cent of migrants were migrated with influencing of their family members (puss factor) and it is remarkable that about 74 per cent of migrants were migrated due to job/service at a particular place of destination(pull factor). The findings indicate that the variables 'education', 'occupation', and 'family size' included in the analysis have had significant effect on rural out-migration. The risk of out-migration was remarkably higher for the households whose member(s) attained at least primary education and the risk of out-migration was significantly higher for the household with occupation as non-agricultural labour. The multivariate logistic regression analysis has been used to identify the determinants of out-migration at household level. The risk of migration was 1.85, 5.00, 10.83 and 10.69 times higher for the households with educational level- primary, secondary, SSC/HSC (secondary school certificate/higher secondary certificate) and graduate respectively as compared to households with no education. The volume of migration showed that a positive relationship with diversity of social status(.307), education(.373) and occupation(.539). Only the education and occupation diversity have been found to be significantly related with volume of outmigration. The migration model proposed by Sivamurthy and Kadi (1984) were found suitable to describe the volume of out-migration for Bangladesh. Finally, we found that the probability distribution under such assumptions fitted well. The distribution of male migrants aged 15 years and above and the probability model have been worked out to describe the distribution of households according to total number of migrants under different assumptions.
A Study of Some Non-linear Stochastic Models on Renewable Resources Management: Application to Forestry
(University of Rajshahi, 2010) Hossain, Md. Mowazzem; Shah, Md. Asaduzzaman
Management is a vibrant and multi phase dynamic process, just like social, scientific and engineering processes, that involves a wide spectrum of activities such as planning, coordination, communication, policy framing, decision making and their implementation. During the last three decades, the management of natural resources in general and that of renewable resources, in particular, has invited the attention of a large segment of researchers in various field [1-SJ. In order to maintain the ecological balance, as well as, meet the economic needs, the forest can play a vital role. Our government also taking special initiative to can-y forward a forestation program throughout the country. Also, to pollution free environment a forestation has no alternative. In this direction government organizations came forward to utilize the renewable resources for economic prosperity of the nation.
Climatic Change and its Impact on Wheat Production in Dinajpur District: Modeling and Quantitative Analysis
(University of Rajshahi, 2010) Afrose, Syeda Jahanara; Nasser, Mohammed
Dinajpur is the leading district for wheat cultivation in Bangladesh and wheat is much sensitive to climatic variation and change. An attempt has made to study the climatic change and its impact on wheat production in Dinajpur district and both the secondary and primary data are collected in this respect. The historical climatic data are collected for 1948-2004 which contain a missing of 8 years during I 973-1980. Primary data are collected by a sample survey to know the people's perception regarding change of climatic behavior on wheat production over the period. In this study, climatic trend and variability of Dinajpur district are examined for 19 climatic variables in decadal, annual, seasonal [three crop seasons like Rabi ={November-February), Prekharif =(March-May) and Kharif =(June-October)], monthly and wheat growing period using exploratory data analysis (EDA) tools such as boxplot, stem-and-leaf display, median polish table etc. Different robust and nonrobust measures are used and outliers are detected. Residual's stationarity is checked by Box-Pierce test statistic and normality is tested by RM (rescaled moment) test. Upward trend is found in means of monthly total rainfall and average cloud, relative humidity, relative humidity at mourning, relative humidity at evening, wet bulb temperature, wind speed, maximum wind speed and minimum temperature (slight) and downward trend is observed in their coefficient of variations (CVs). Both the variations and means for average difference of dry and wet bulb temperature, difference in mourning and evening relative humidity, evaporation and range temperature demonstrate downward trend. The monthly means of average maximum temperature and sunshine hour indicate downward trend and their CVs indicate upward trend. The average dry bulb temperature follows upward trend in Rabi and Kharif season and downward trend in Prekharif season. The average soil temperature at the depth of 5cm follows upward trend during 1987-2000 and sunshine hour show downward trend in all the three seasons during 1989-2004. The total rainfall shows upward trend in February, April, May, September, October and December but it does not show any trend in January, March, June, July, August and November. Time series properties of climatic (monthly data) and wheat production data are investigated from fitted ARlMA models based on minimum root mean square forecasting error of 24 and the values for 2005 to 2008 and 2009 to 2012 are forecasted from selected models. The missing values are forecasted by fitting ARIMA models. The year 1981 of the variables AMNT, A WBT, A WS, ARH and ARH(0-12) are detected as outlier in fitting the models during 1981- 2004 and the outliers are replaced by the forecasted observations from the data during 1982-2004. The square root transformed monthly data of total rainfall during 1948-2004 follow ARIMA (100) (111) model and the ADBT follow AR.IMA (011) (IO1). The production of wheat during 1949-2001 in Dinajpur district primarily follow upward linear trend and residuals are departed from normality but support non-autocorrelated structure and one outlier is identified in 1982 from the plot of deletion Studentized residuals. We have got an opposite conclusions from outlier corrected data. Structural change is observed in 1976 and the data for 1949 to 1975 and 1976 to 2001 separately follow AR (1) models but not for the overall period. The corrected data set during 1949-2001 adequately fits the 1st order Piecewise Autoregressive Model PAR (l) [suggested by lmon (2007)]. It may be mentioned that the reason for not considering the wheat production during 1948-2004 is that the data during that period do not adequately fit PAR (l) model. To quantify the impact of climatic change on wheat production during the period of 1948-2004 we have tried to fit a multiple regression model of wheat production data on climatic data (Nov-Mar) where one dummy variable is taken for the structural change in wheat production data in 1976. Multicollinearity among the predictor variables and normality and stationarity for the residuals are checked. Strong evidence is not found for multicollinearity and first order autocorrelated structure is found in the residuals. The parameters have been estimated using Cochrane-Orcutt iterative procedure where residuals follow normality and stationrity after removing two hi-leverages and two outliers and we observe no significant coefficient except dummy variable and this may be due to technological change such as high yielding variety, improved physical inputs like irrigation, fertilizer, pesticide etc. In the survey, hundred percent (100%) respondents have opined that there is a change in climate than previous time and the changing behavior of climate has severely affected the crop production, acreage under crop and the total process of production as a whole. Insufficient rain in Rainy season, lesser coldness in Winter season, lesser temperature in Summer and lesser dew in Autumn are experienced by them. Stormy and dusty wind does not blow as it blew before and cold affects people at night in the month of Choitra (mid March-mid April). Due to the unusual behavior of climate wheat production has suffered a lot. According to them, Changes of temperature are affecting the production of wheat greatly and they think those to be the most potential reasons. Changing of climate may pose a big and devastating threat to the production of wheat and 88% people opine that the cultivation of wheat in future may fall under a serious threat.
Allometric Model Study of Inter Limb Growth: A Case Study of Children From Jessore District
(University of Rajshahi, 2010) Nawaz, Md. Shahjada Ali; Ali, Md. Ayub
The aim of this study was to investigate the allometric growth of inter-limbs of males and females. All the subjects were student of primary school of urban and rural area at Jessore district in Bangladesh. The age ranges of the subjects were between 6 to 12 years for males, 6-11 years for females. Longitudinal data on body and head dimensions (stature, weight, sitting height, leg length, chest circumference, left and right upper arm length, elbow-wrist length, left and right tibia length, left and right upper arm circumference, head length, head breadth and head circumference) were measured from 2006 to 2009. The study started with 117 children. There was about 24% loss of the sample size. Finally we were 89 subjects. Descriptive statistics, growth chart and allometric growth model were used. Allometric relationships between body and head dimensions were obtained through log-linear regression analysis. Growth of head dimensions (head length, head breadth and head circumference) was negatively allometric with respect to stature for males and females, i.e., growth rate of head dimensions were smaller than growth rate of stature. Growth of body dimensions (leg length, tibia length, arm length etc.) were positive allometry with respect to stature implying growth of these body dimensions were greater than that of stature but the growth of sitting height with respect to stature were negative allometry. Growth of leg length and upper arm length with respect to stature were isometry for urban females. Growth of urban males and females were greater than rural males and females in stature, weight, sitting height, leg length, chest circumference, head length, head breadth and head circumference. Average stature differs more than 5 cm between urban and rural females, 4 cm for urban males and females. Average weight differs more than 4 kg between urban and rural males, 6 kg for urban and rural females. An in-depth further study should be taken into accounts for searching the reason of this regional difference.
Study of Marriage Pattern and Its Implications on Fertility in Bangladesh
(University of Rajshahi, 2011) Khaleque, Md. Abdul; Islam, Md. Nurul; Abedin, Samad
Recent studies on marriage patterns in Bangladesh have revealed a clear trend towards decreasing proportions of married women and an increase in age at first marriage. Despite marriage being one of the most important proximate determinants of fertility, the role of these nuptiality changes on the country's decreasing fertility levels has not been adequately explored. Using data from the 2004 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey, this paper fills this research gap by examining the pattern of marriage and impact on fertility in Bangladesh. Adolescents, their parents and the community should be more aware of the negative consequences of early marriage, early pregnancy and large family size. In Bangladesh there has long been strong social pressure for the preservation of virginity until marriage. This is one of the cultural characteristics of the great majority of people in the country irrespective of their religion. Sex out side marriage occurs only seldom, since pre-marital sex is looked down upon harshly in Bangladeshi society (Maloney and others, 1981 ). Among females almost 95 percent of marriage takes place before the end of their second decade of life. This densely populated country of 136.7 million people (SVRS, 2004) is also characterized by a high population growth rate (1.42 percent annually: BBS, 2004), high nuptiality and low age at marriage (N Islam, 1989). There has been a clear rising trend towards higher age at marriage over time (Islam and Islam, 1993). The study covers a period of nearly 32 years from 197 5 to 2007. The trends in the marriage pattern as well as in the levels of fertility are examined for this period of study. Attempts are made to find the correlated components of marriage and fertility responsible for giving rise to such tends as are observed during the course of analysis. The results show that marriage patterns have been changing over time. Analysis of age patterns of marriage by means of Coale's model nuptiality schedule has yielded some interesting results. It has been found that marriage still remains a universal phenomenon in Bangladesh. Early marriage prevails in the population and that marriage not only start early but progresses fast and are concentrated within a short span of time at least in the female population. This study confirms that marriage is almost universal among females in Bangladesh there are very few women who remain single throughout their lives. As in various other developing agricultural societies, early female marriage is customary in Bangladesh. Most female have been married before age 20, with almost 100 percent getting married by the time they reach age 30. Data from the 2004 BDHS indicates that, among the 10205 sampled married females aged below 50 years; about 95 percent had been married when they were below age 20 and only 5 percent were married at 20 years of age or older. In Bangladesh the legal age of marriage is 18 years for the women; however a large proportion of marriages of still take place. Thus, it may be said that about 95 percent of marriages in Bangladesh are teenage or adolescent marriages. This situation gives rise to a very low age at marriage in Bangladesh. This leads to an exceptionally low mean age at first marriages, i.e. 13.4 years. Legislation on age of marriage, therefore, seems to be ineffective in delaying childhood marriage in Bangladesh. In a recent study have observed that a large majority of the rural community in Bangladesh are ignorant about the legal age for marriage and are even less concerned about the negative social and health consequences of adolescent marriage. According to the regression, the TFR equals on average 7 .82 births per women in the absences of contraception (CPR=0), and fertility declines at a rate of approximately 1.0 births per women for each 9% increment in the contraceptive prevalence rate. Under such relationship between TFR and CPR the replacement fertility requires a prevalence level of fertility can be achieved. The regression equation of TFR on CPR suggest that a TFR of 2.5 births per women can be achieved by the year 2015 if the level of CPR is raised to 65% and if the level of contraception is raised to 73% it is possible to achieve a target fertility level of 2.0 per women.
Investigating the Trend and Impact of Some Variables on HYV Boro Rice Production in Northern Region of Bangladesh
(University of Rajshahi, 2011) Kundu, Ranjan Kumar; Karmokar, Provash Kumar
Boro rice is playing a significant role in the total rice production of Bangladesh. High yielding variety (HYV) Boro rice is grown enormously in the Northern region of Bangladesh. On the basis of per hector production, three HYV Boro rice producing districts have been selected by Simple Random Sampling for the present study. The selected three districts are Rajshahi, Rangpur and Dinajpur. To fulfill the objectives of the present study Trend Analysis and Factor Analysis have been anticipated. Suitability of commonly used trend models like Linear, Compound and Quadratics trend models for the selected districts were checked by Mann-Kendall and Spearman non parametric statistical tests and parameters of these models were estimated by OLS technique. The DW statistics are obtained by OLS technique shows the evidence of autocorrelation in the data sets. To overcome this problem we have used CochraneOrcutt technique to estimate of parameter of the trend models. The Cochrane-Orcutt technique minimizes the autocorrelation problem. The JB test shows the normality assumption of errors for all the models. Although the R2 and adjusted R2 have increased for all the models it is remarkable of about 17%-18% increasing of these values for Rajshahi districts in both the Linear and Compound models. The HYV Boro productions of the selected districts have been forecasted up to year 2021 for three trend models using the data from 1971 to 2003 by Cochrane-Orcutt technique and the results are given in detailed in Chapter Three. It is seen from the result that the Compound Trend model performs better maintaining the growth rate 1.009 for Rajshahi, 1.012 for Rangpur, 1.008 for Dinapur and its forecasting performance is the best among the trend models. Production of HYV Boro rice may depend on several climatic and non climatic variables like, rainfall, temperature, wind speed, humidity, cloud coverage, CO2 emission, fertilizer use and tractor use. In this study, we are also interested to identify the factors whose impacts are influential to the HYV Boro production of the selected districts of northern region of Bangladesh. Factor analysis, a data reduction technique have been used to identify the impact such variables on HYV Boro rice production in northern region of Bangladesh. Our analysis has identified five influential factors for the HYV Boro rice production for each of the districts. Therefore it is shown that the selected factors account for 82.33% of the total variance for Rajshahi district, 75. 71 % of the total variance for Rangpur district and 71.57% of the total variance for Dinajpur districts. The findings of this study convey a message to the agriculturist, concerned authorities and policy makers that keep watching of climatic factors and proper handling of other relevant factors in Boro rice production of northern region that would be significant in food supplying in this region and enhance the food security of Bangladesh.