Department of Statistics

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Anthropometric Study of the Shantal Community in Rajshahi District
(University of Rajshahi, 2006) Karim, Md. Rezaul; Islam, Md. Nurul; Ali, Md. Ayub
The aim of the thesis was to study Anthropometric variables sta􀀊ure, body weight, body mass index (BMI), sitting height and chest circumference, to find their relationships with some of the demographic and Socio-economic variables of Shantal community in Rajshshi District, Bangladesh. The_demographic and socioeconomic variables were collected through a questionnaire (in Appendix-I). Anthropometric measurements were taken by the· author himself. The cluster sampling technique was applied. The sample size were 396 for male and 438 for female. The present study demonstrated that the average stature, body weight, sitting height and chest circumference of young Shantals were increasing comparatively with those of oldest Shantals. Almost every Shantals were very lean and thin and stature, body weight, sitting height, and chest circumference of Shantals were positively and significantly related to each other. The present study indicated that the female onset of menarche of Shantals community reached earlier who were heavier and became late menarche who were both taller and thinner. Also lower BMI of female Shantals were reached age at menarche earlier than those of larger BMI. Also, age at menarche was earlier for those whose family income were higher and was late for those whose family income were lower and the onset of menarche reached earlier than those who have fewer number of sibling. Through the logistic regression, the present study suggest that the stature of literate male Shantals were shorter than the stature of illiterate Shantals and their differences were signHicant (p<0.05). The body weight and occupation were negatively associated but their differences were insignificant. The stature of literate female Shantals were higher than the stature of illiterate female Shantals and the body weight of female labors were lower than the body weight of non-labor female Shantals with significant differences. Sexual differences among stature, body weight and BMI of Shantals were found and the male Shantals were taller in stature and heavier in body weight than female Shantals and female Shantals were lean and thin. Government should take favorable view and necessary co-operations for their better health, social and economic management.
Changing Pattern of Fertility in Bangladesh
(University of Rajshahi, 2013) Jobbar, Md. Abdul; Islam, Md. Nurul
In this study, an attempt has been made to assess the factors associated with changing pattern of fertility in Bangladesh using nationally representative data from Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BOHS), 2007. Multivariate technique named Logistic regression analysis has been used to find out the effects of the selected demographic and socio-economic factors on fertility pattern. Geometric distribution, Beta Geometric distribution and also multivariate technique named Cox's proportional hazard regression analysis have been used to identify the relationship between fertility, conception wait and fecundability. Fertility is still high in Bangladesh, though it has been declining over time. A major cause of declining fertility has been the steady increase in contraceptive use over the last 32 years; another major cause of declining fertility has been the steady increase the age at marriage. Current contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) is 56% in 2007 BOHS (Mitra et, al., May 2009). The result of Logistic regression analysis shows that several socio-economic and demographic factors significantly affect on fertility. These are age at first marriage, current age of respondent, place of residence, religion, region, respondent's educational level, partner's educational level, work status of women, partner's occupation, contraceptive use, spousal age difference, marital duration, wealth index, body mass index, mass media contact, partner's age etc. From the result of logistic regression analysis, we observed that lower age at marriage giving higher fertility on the other hand higher educated women giving lower fertility. From place of residence we observed that fertility is higher in rural areas. There are several reasons, these include may be the rural women are less educated than urban women; rural women have less media connection etc. Regional difference reveals that fertility is higher in Rajshahi and lower in Sylhet Division. Barisal, Chittagong, Dhaka and Khulna division have intermediate levels of fertility. Religion has affect on fertility behavior through Muslims and Non-Muslims. The analysis shows that fertility among Muslims is higher as compared with Non-Muslims in each age group. Work status of women suggests that labor force participation may be consequence of lower fertility than non-working counterpart. Women who are involved with any service are not dependent on men (husbands), both socially and mentally have their own rights and absence of dependence, men cannot forcibly use women to increase their fertility. This has resulted in lower fertility. Fecundability is regarded as one of the important proximate parameters of fertility performance of the married women. Due to the complex nature of fecundability, we have attempted in this study to estimate mean fecundability from the first conception interval, which is not associated with postpartum infecundability. The first conception intervals have been estimated indirectly by utilizing the data. Since the cohort of women is not homogenous in regards to reproductive performance, we have attempted to estimate the mean recognizable effective fecundability by fitting the Pearson Type-I beta geometric model with parameters a and b to the observed distribution of first conception delay in addition to geometric distribution. In our analysis, we have estimated the parameters by the method of moments. The purpose of the present study, to estimate the mean conception delay, mean and corresponding variance of fecundability and levels, trends and differentials of fecundability of the Bangladeshi women. The mean conception delay of the Bangladeshi women has been found 23.88 months after their first marriage and the mean fecundability is 0.042, which is estimated by geometric distribution. The theoretical arithmetic and harmonic mean fecundabilities are found 0.045 and 0.042 respectively by fitting Beta geometric distribution. This study reveals that the women with higher education have lower mean conception delay and higher mean fecundability. We have also seen from this study that age at first marriage has negative relation with conception wait and positive relation with fecundabihity. It is observed that conception wait is decreasing and level of fecundability is increasing with the increasing age at first marriage whatever be the marital duration. Moreover, the fecundability decreases with the increasing marital duration whatever be the ages at first marriage. This indicates that the more the age at first marriage the higher the fecundability level and less the conception wait and vice-versa. Furthermore, the more the marital duration the less the fecundability and higher the conception wait and vice-versa. We get the significant regression coefficient between age at first marriage and conception wait as -1.849, which reflects that with the increase o 1.85 months. The trend analysis shows that conception wait is lower consequently fecundability is higher in the recent past than at some distant point of time. The multivariate analysis through the Cox's proportional Hazard Regression model shows that the respondent age at first marriage, current age of respondent, place of residence, religion, region, respondent's educational level, partner's educational level, work status of women, partner's occupation, contraceptive use, spousal age difference, marital duration, wealth index, body mass index, mass media contact and partner's age are found to have statistically significant association with the marriage to first conception wait. From the result of multivariate analysis we conclude that the associated factors which affect fertility those factors also affect fecundability with the same direction. f age at first marriage by one year, conception wait tends to decrease By 1.85 months. The trend analysis shows that conception wait is lower consequently fecundability is higher in the recent past than at some distant point of time. The multivariate analysis through the Cox's proportional Hazard Regression model shows that the respondent age at first marriage, current age of respondent, place of residence, religion, region, respondent's educational level, partner's educational level, work status of women, partner's occupation, contraceptive use, spousal age difference, marital duration, wealth index, body mass index, mass media contact and partner's age are found to have statistically significant association with the marriage to first conception wait.
Covariates of Early Childbearing in Bangladesh
(University of Rajshahi, 2008) Islam, Md. Roshidul; Islam, Md. Nurul; Abedin, Samad
Early childbearing means the early growth that is the growth capacity of teen age’s women. It is apparent that early childbearing vary with varying demographic and socio-economic variables. Very little attention is given as to how to capture the pattern of early childbearing with respect to age, age at marriage, duration of marriage, children ever born as well with varying socio-economic situation like education of women, education of husband and working status of women and so on. Among the studies available, most of the focus on the consequence for developed countries. Since relatively lower attention has been given to one of the major influential factors of fertility decline in Bangladesh, the early childbearing. Early childbearing in human population is the achieved fertility of a woman or a group of women less than 20 years of age. While On-time childbearing involves less, both early and delayed childbearing involve high-risk also involves in having children in quick succession as well as in having children more than three or four. Thus childbearing occurs early or late, in quick succession and at higher parity (more than 3 or 4) involves high-risk and beyond these have some low-risk. Admitting that every pregnancy expulsion involves risk - more or less. The present study is an attempt to analyze the childbearing pattern that are termed as high-risk and low-risk and try to isolate the factors that discriminate and affect significantly the high-risk and low-risk pattern in the context of current age of women. Methodology The study uses 11 variables that include age of women, age at first marriage, duration of marriage, contraceptive use, place of residence, religion, education of women, education of husband, women's work status, occupation of husband and total children ever born. Such data are available from the 2004 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) implemented through a collaborative effect of the National Institute of Population Research and Training (NIPORT), Mitra and Associates, and ORC Macro (USA). Multi-stage random sampling was used to obtain the data. Data were obtained from all the administrative geographical divisions of Bangladesh. A total of 11440 ever-married women aged 10-49 were interviewed to collect data concerning fertility levels, contraceptive, infant mortality levels to improve the lives of mothers and children. There are 1703 ever-married women are eligible for our study ( <20 years) out of 11440. Aside from rates and ratio used in the analysis of data, the study uses x2-analysis to test the association between the attributes of risk of childbearing classified as high-risk and low-risk in terms of age indicates socioeconomic and demographic phenomena. The study also employed by two sophisticated statistical techniques namely, discriminant and logistic regression analysis. Findings It is evident that early childbearing performance vanes greatly with differences in religion, education residential status and so on. Majority of women (90.5 percent) are not currently working outside home. A considerable 70.8 percent of women live in rural area. About 28.1 percent of the study population has no formal education. About 65.6 percent women do not use contraceptive methods. It was found that the variables viz., education of women, contraceptive use, women's working status, occupation of husband, duration of marriage, age at first marriage are the most significantly associated. The variables that significantly discriminate the high-risk childbearing from the low-risk childbearing are marital duration, age at marriage, mother's education, place of residence, women's work status, religion and contraceptive use. It was also found that the most significant variables that influence both the high-risk and low-risk childbearing are marital duration, contraceptive use, mother's education, age at marriage, religion, place of residence and women work status.
Factors Affecting Infant and Child Mortality in Bangladesh: A Multivariate Analysis
(University of Rajshahi, 2008) Islam, Md. Mogibul; Islam, Md. Nurul
The reduction of infant and child mo11ality in the developing countries is one or the most substantial achievements of human kind. However, in spite of various effective intervention programs, the infant and child mortality are considerably high in Bangladesh. Therefore, in this study, an attempt has been made to assess the levels, patterns and determinants of mortality in Bangladesh utilizing nationally representative data from Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) 2004. The purpose of this study is also to identify user-related factors, which influence the infant and child mortality in Bangladesh. Differential pattern in infant and child mortality in Bangladesh is examined using bi variate analysis, logistic regression analysis and also factor analysis in multivariate approach. The study results show that several socioeconomic, demographic and household variables affect infant and child mortality. These are: place of residence, division, mother's education, father's education, father's occupation, age of mother at birth of child, sex of child, preceding birth interval, availability of electricity, sources or drinking water, toilet facilities, exposure to mass media i.e., radio, TV and floor/wall/roof materials. Multivariate analysis results indicate that type of place of residence, sex of child, mother's education, father's occupation and division are important factors that have significant influence on infant and child mortality. Ti1e most significant predictors of neonatal, post-neonatal and infant mortality are mother's education and father's occupation. Father and mother's education both are persistent socioeconomic predictors of mortality. Construction materials of wall of houses are found significant for neonatal mortality. Floor materials are found significant for infant mortality. Furthermore, differential analysis shows that, male children experienced substantially higher mortali1y than female children did at neonatal, infantile and child periods but in post-neonatal period the relationship is opposite.
Factors Associated with Target Fertility in Bangladesh
(University of Rajshahi, 2012) Karim, Md. Rezaul; Islam, Md. Nurul
In this study, an attempt has been made to assess the factors associated with target fertility in Bangladesh using nationally representative data from Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BOHS), 2007. Simple linear regression as well as multivariate techniques named logistic regression analysis have been used to find out the direct, indirect and combined (interaction) effects of the selected socio-demographic factors on fertility. To quantify the proximate variables, we apply Bonga arts' model as well as proposed Bogart’s' model. The results of the study show that several socio-economic (socio-economic, demographic) variables effect on fertility behavior. These are age at marriage, place of residence, religion, region, education of women and men (partner's/husband's), working status of women, occupation of women and men (husband's), women's participation at NGO's, age at first birth of women, length of breastfeeding practice, contraceptive use, number of dead children (boys and girls) etc. Fertility is still high in Bangladesh, though it has been declining over time. A major cause of declining fertility has been the steady increase in contraceptive use over the last 32 years; another major cause of declining fertility has been the steady increase the age at marriage. Current contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) is 56% in 2007 BOHS (Mitra et, al., May 2009). The effect of marriage pattern and marital fertility, on the overall fertility of Bangladesh examined by Coal’s indices show higher influences of marriage pattern than that of marital fertility. The effect of change of marriage pattern in reducing fertility level perhaps has increased over time. Again, the age pattern of marriage and the contraceptive use have changed in a positive direction, the negative impact of which has fallen on fertility. Examination of the changes of the indicated indices at various time segments that the changed could be a recent phenomenon. To identify the change of fertility in terms of proximate variables, Bonga art’s model has been used. Among the variables in the analysis of proximate determinants of fertility happened to be in response of the effect of increase in proportion married and contraceptive use. These determinant shows that 5.69% decline due to change in the proportion of women married, 12.36% decline due to contraceptive use, 0.596% decline due to increase the index of fetal wastages and approximately 20.38% increase due to decrease of the duration of lactational in fecundability. Application of Bonga arts · model indicates that there is a downward trend in all the proximate indices. Between 1997 and 2007 the amount of decrement of total fertility rate is about 17.51 % and it is about 10.139% between 2004 and 2007. This is primarily caused by an increase in the use and effectiveness of contraceptives. The divorce and widowhood have also a major contribution on reduction of the fertility in Bangladesh. Observed TFR found to be 2.7 in 2007 and Bonga arts' model estimate the TFR is 3.21 which is far away from observed TFR but our proposed model estimates the TFR is 2. 76 which is closer to the observed TFR. Again, for consideration only abortion index in Bonga arts · model the estimated TF is 12.83 which is far away from assumed TF and our proposed model gives the value of TF is 14.99 which is very close to observed TF (15.3). So, comparing the estimated values we conclude that proposed model is better than Bonga arts· model. The study of differential fertility indicates the inverse relationship between age at marriage and fertility; education of women, men (husbands) and fertility; occupation of women, men (husbands) and fertility. We observed that fertility is higher in rural areas. There are several reasons, these include may be the rural women are less educated than urban women; rural women have poor media connection etc. Regional difference reveals that fertility is higher in Chittagong, Sylhet and Barisal than from Khulna, Rajshahi and Dhaka division. Dhaka and Rajshahi division have intermediate levels of fertility. Religion has effect on fertility behavior through Muslims and Non-Muslims. The analysis shows that fertility among Muslims is higher as compared with non-Muslims in each age group. Several variables, such as, work status of women, women's participation at NGO's suggests that labor force participation may be consequence of lower fertility than non-working counterpart. Women who are involved, with any service are not dependent on men (husbands), both socially and mentally have their own rights and absence of dependence, men cannot forcibly use women to increase their fertility. This has resulted in lower fertility. Results of logistic regression analysis indicates that place of residence, religion, age at marriage of women, age of first birth of women, women's education, contraceptive use, women's currently working status, pregnancy status, number of living children, access of mass media and involvement in NGO's are ttie most important significant variables that influence fertility in Bangladesh. According to the regression, the TFR equals, on average 7.742 births per women in the absences of contraception (CPR=0), and fertility declines at a rate of approximately 1.0 birth per women for each 9% increment in the contraceptive prevalence rate. The regression equation of TFR on CPR suggests that a TFR of 2.4 births per women can be achieved if the level of CPR will be raised to 61 % and if the level of CPR will be raised to 65% it is possible to achieve a target TFR level of 2.1 births per women. The prevalence rates are computed at the effectiveness levels of 0.85 and 0.90 such effectiveness of contraception has already reached 0.85 in the year 2007. The results indicate that if target fertility 2.6 is to be achieved then the CPR will be raised to 58% and 57% with 0.85 and 0.90 effectiveness respectively. Similarly, if target fertility 2.1 can be achieved the CPR is to be approximately 68% and 66% with 0.85 and 0.90 effectiveness respectively. The result also found that to reach the desired level of target fertility it must increase the use of contraception, duration of breastfeeding, singulate mean age at marriage and amenorrhea period. To achieve replacement level of fertility at 2.1 births per women we should increase the CPR, SMAM, duration of breastfeeding and amenorrhea period by 68%, 20.80 years, 15.5 months and 22.56 months respectively.
Impact of Early Childbearing on the Health of the Mother and Child: A Statistical Study
(University of Rajshahi, 2013) Islam, Md. Ashraful; Islam, Md. Nurul; Hossain, Md. Golam
Recent research has document the focus of rapidly growing interest on adolescents’ and their child health in the developing and under developed countries because of its important implications not only for the health of mother but also their children. Early childbearing is an important indicator for women’s and their child health. Body mass index is an indicator of nutritional status in a population. This indicator provides the circumstances that can assist intervention to help eradicate many preventable diseases. Health impact of teenage childbearing is not only due to socio-demographic factors but also due to biological factors. Women early age at first marriage were associated with early childbearing and early childbearing is considered as a risk factor for poor prenatal outcomes. There is a need to study demographic trends particularly trends in marriage under the framework of “basic need strategy”. The objectives of “basic need strategy” among others are to eradicate poverty, unemployment, hunger and literacy is considered as a major precondition for achieving population goals and the participation of women in development. The main objective of this study is to evaluate and analyze the impact of early childbearing on the mother and their child health of rural and urban community in Bangladesh. The specific objectives were: first one, to find the effect of socio-demographic factors on early childbearing mother’s health; second one, to investigate the changes in age at first marriage of Bangladeshi women over time and third one, to estimate the parameters involving in the age patterns of marriage and evaluate the patterns (using single year age distributions) of distributions of first marriage frequencies and risks of the first marriages of ever married women in Bangladesh. Finally, the purposes of the study were to demonstrate the applicability of the generalized Poisson regression (GPR) model as an alternative of other statistical methods and to find some predictors of child malnutrition in Bangladesh. Considering the reproductive women (age 15-49 years), data was extracted from Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey in this study. For measuring mothers’ health a sample of 1908 ever-married women of age 10-24 were used from the total sample of 10,966. For investigate the age at first marriage and its trends over time, data for 47,109 married Bangladeshi women from 1944-1985 were analyzed. To estimate the parameters of Coale’s nuptiality model and evaluate the patterns of distributions of first marriage frequencies also risks of the first marriages of ever married women in Bangladesh, eventually all of 10,996 ever married women from age 15 to 49 years were taken. To examine the health problem and risks faced by early childbearing mothers’ children in Bangladesh a total sample of 3,207 were extracted. Logistic regression was used to examine the relative importance of socio-demographic factors on early childbearing mothers’ health. ANOVA and linear regression analysis were used to investigate the changes in age at first marriage of Bangladeshi women over four decades. The first marriage frequency and risk of first marriage of women was estimated by Coale and McNeil (1972) model. This model considered five year age group of population. In the present study single year age distribution of ever married female in Bangladesh has been considered. Finally for measuring child health Chi-square test and GPR model were used. More than 33 percent early childbearing mothers have been suffering from chronic energy deficiency, among them 35.4 percent came from rural and 26.9 percent from urban. The BMI varied from 11.95 kg/m2 to 37.79 kg/m2, with a mean of 19.86 ± 2.70 kg/m2 (95% CI: 19.74-19.98). About 15.7 percent women fall below the cutoff of 145 centimeters in height. A decreasing trend was found in the number of CED women with increasing educational level. Student t-test revealed that caesarean mother had a higher BMI than non-caesarean mother (p < 0.001. The coefficients and odds ratio of logistic regression analysis demonstrated that early childbearing mothers who were from rural areas, illiterate, hard laborer, unemployed partner, poorest, non-caesarian, delivered at home, earlier age at first marriage, early age at first birth, having two or more children, were at higher risk for getting chronic energy deficiency (underweight). Based on Wald statistics (16.258) we conclude that age at first marriage was the most influential variable on early childbearing and undernourished mother in Bangladesh. The mean and median age at first marriage of ever married Bangladeshi women was 14.73 ±2.96 years and 14.00 years, respectively; rural women got marriage significantly (p<0.01) earlier than urban women. More than 85 percent (rural 87.6 percent and urban 78.2 percent) Bangladeshi women got marriage before they reached 18 years old, among them 17.0 percent (rural 18.5 percent and urban 13.1 percent) got marriage very early age (before 13 years old). The present study demonstrated that the age at first marriage of ever married Bangladeshi women was showing increasing tendency with changing time. Using ANOVA, age at first marriage for rural and urban showed significant (p<0.01) differences among the birth year cohorts from 1944 to 1985 of the present sample. However, the slope of linear regression line indicated that age at first marriage for both rural and urban women exhibited increasing tendency during the investigated period. Also, the present study demonstrated that the child marriage among Bangladeshi women showed slightly decreasing tendency during birth year cohorts from 1944 to 1985. Coale’s model was used to find the age pattern of marriage among Bangladeshi women. The model gave us interesting results. Most of female got married before the age of 20 years with almost 100 percent getting married by the time they reach age 30. In Bangladesh the legal age of marriage is 18 years old for the women; however a large proportion (about 95 percent) of marriages below this age still take place. The GPR model has been found to be reasonable to study the outcome variable because of its under-dispersion (variance < mean) property. Our study also identify several significant predictors of the outcome variable namely; region, place of residence, father’s and mother’s education, mothers occupation, wealth index, delivery system, place of delivery, source of drinking water of the household, toilet facility, and total number of children ever born to a woman. These above results suggest that for improving health status of Bangladeshi early childbearing mothers, are need to improve the literacy. The result also suggest that age at first marriage of Bangladeshi women has been increasing for last four decades, and increasing rate of urban women is faster than rural women. Moreover, the study confirms that marriage still remains a universal phenomenon among females in Bangladesh. Early marriage prevails that marriage not only start early but progresses fast and are concentrated within a short span of time at least in the female population. Consistencies of our findings we suggest that the GPR model is an ideal alternative of other statistical models for analyzing child malnutrition in a family.
Modeling of the Women’s Reproductive Behavior and Predicted Probabilities of Contraceptive Use in Bangladesh
(University of Rajshahi, 2016) Islam, Md. Rashedul; Islam, Md. Nurul; Rahman, Md. Monsur
Bangladesh is the most densely and is the 8th most populated country in the world. Over population or high density is one of the most important causes for both low and deteriorating living condition in Bangladesh Population is still growing. So, the situation is worsening with every passing year. Begging fully aware of the detritus effect of such rapid growths, the government, demographers, social workers, academicians, donor agencies and policy makers have declared population a problem of great importance and identified it as the number one problem in the agenda of governmental duties and functions. Like many other developing countries Bangladesh emphasizes the importance of contraceptive use for reducing fertility as a part of her overall strategy to bring down the growth rate of total population. Family planning programs work in order to achieve demographic targets through the reduction of fertility. Unfortunately, in our country there has always been a gap between target fertility and it’s getting at the terminal year of target period of all its plan period. Our country never gained either desired level of fertility (TFR) or contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR). The fifth Five-Year Plan (1998-2003), where target TFR and CPR respectively had 2.5 and 60%. Whereas, the achievement had been TFR 3.0 children per woman and CPR had been 58%. It was followed by the second Sector-Wide Approach, the Health, Nutrition and Population Sector Program, which began in 2003 and expired in June 2011, where target TFR and CPR respectively had 2.1 and 65%. Whereas, the achievement had been TFR 2.3 children per woman and CPR had been 61%. Additionally, the Health Population Nutrition Sector Development Program plans to reduce the TFR to 2.0 children per woman by 2016. To fulfillment such gaps there have raised questions about estimation equation used to project about CPR or contraceptive use effectiveness (UEC) in order to achieve TFR per woman at a desired level at the end of plan period or future. Thus in this study, an attempt has been made to assess the modeling of the women’s reproductive behavior and predicted probabilities of contraceptive use in Bangladesh using nationally representative data from Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS), 2011. To improve our clear understanding of the fertility change, we critically examine the effect of major proximate determinants on fertility and their changing effects for the period 1975 to 2011. During these periods decomposing Original Bongaarts Model (OBM) and Revised Bongaarts Model (RBM) assesses the individual contribution made by each of the four intermediate variables to change the fertility. The study also examines how well these determinants predict fertility levels of Bangladesh. Path model and binary logistic regression model have been used to find out the direct, indirect and combined (interaction) effects of the selected demographic, socio-economic factors on fertility. To achieve target fertility related with contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) and contraceptive use effectiveness (UEC) four models viz., RBM and exponential regression model (ERM), polynomial regression model (PRM), linear regression model (LRM) have been applied. Revised Bongaarts model indicates that between 1989 and 2011, the amount of decrement of total fertility rate (TFR) was about 38.4%, about 42% between 1989 and 2007, 36% between 1989 and 2004, about 34% between 1989 and 1999-2000, 10% between 2004 and 2007; but the amount of increment of TFR was 6.6% between 2007 and 2011. The exogenous variables de-facto place of residence, current age of women, husband current age, education of women, wealth index have respectively 89%, 81%, 85%, 74%, 83% indirect effect on fertility. The endogenous variables women age at first marriage and women age at first birth have respectively 67% and 95%, other three endogenous variables sons who have died, women currently working and ever use contraception each has approximately 100% direct effect on fertility.
Modelling of Nutritional Status of Ever-Married Women in Bangladesh
(University of Rajshahi, 2015) Kamruzzaman, Md.; Hossain, Md. Golam; Islam, Md. Nurul; Abedin, Samad
The change in nutritional status plays an important role in the course of a person’s health. Body mass index (BMI) is measure of body fat based on height and weight of a person and it is used to screen for weight categories that may lead to health problems. The first main objective of this thesis was to observe the presence of secular trends in nutritional status of Bangladeshi married women over time. A total of 45,572 Bangladeshi non-pregnant married women in reproductive age were used in this study with average age 30.11±9.04 years. The secondary cross-sectional data used in this study was extracted from Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) and they collected data from Bangladeshi ever-married women using multistage stratified cluster sampling. The last five rounds (1996-97, 1999-2000, 2004, 2007 and 2011) BDHS measured height and weight from their selected sample, the data was derived from the measurement years 1996-97 to 2011. Descriptive statistics, Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and linear regression analysis were used in this study. The mean value of BMI of Bangladeshi non-pregnant married women was 20.65±3.67 kg/m2 with height and weight were 150.60±5.44 cm and 46.93±9.24 kg, respectively. Using ANOVA, height, weight and BMI showed significant (p<0.001) differences among the measurement year cohorts from 1996-97 to 2011. The increasing tendency in height, weight and BMI of Bangladeshi married women in reproductive age were showed during the measurement years from 1996-97 to 2011. The sample was divided into 40 groups according their birth year cohorts from 1955 to 1995. ANOVA also demonstrated that the variation of height, weight and BMI were significant (p<0.001) among the birth year cohorts from 1955 to 1995. The slope of linear regression demonstrated that an increasing tendency in BMI was found among birth year cohorts from 1955 to 1971, but a decreasing tendency was observed during the birth year cohorts from 1972 to 1995. In this study found that more than 50% women were normal weight and a remarkable number of married women (31.4%) were underweight. More than 10% women were overweight and only 2.1% were obese among non-pregnant Bangladeshi married women. It was found that the proportion of underweight women has been increasing and the opposite direction also observed for the number of obese in those born during the last 40 years of the study period (1955 to 1995). Underweight can be considered as the major health problems of Bangladeshi married women and requires attention. The second objective of the thesis was to investigate the influencing factors of body mass index among Bangladeshi married women. Hierarchy data was used in this study that was collected by Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey-2011 (BDHS-2011) using multistage stratified cluster sampling. Usually, large-scale survey for public health, demography and sociology follow a hierarchical data structure as the surveys are based on multistage stratified cluster sampling. The appropriate approach to analyzing such survey data is therefore based on nested sources of variability which come from different levels of the hierarchy. The single level statistical model is not appropriate for analyzing such kind of data set. Multilevel (two level) linear regression was utilized in the present study to remove the cluster effect for each outcome. The mean BMI of Bangladeshi married women in reproductive age was 21.60±3.86 kg/m2 with height and weight was 150.92 ±5.36 cm and 49.28 ± 9.69 kg, respectively. The prevalence of underweight, normal weight, overweight and obese were 22.8%, 59.1%, 14.9% and 3.2%, respectively of Bangladeshi non-pregnant married women in reproductive age for BDHS-2011 data set. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) demonstrated that the BMI of Bangladeshi non-pregnant married women in reproductive age was significantly different among respondents’ and her husbands’ education level (p<0.001) and wealth index (p<0.001). The t-test showed that the differences of BMI was significant between (i) urban and rural (p<0.001), (ii) watching television, yes and no ((p<0.001), (iii) currently breastfeeding, yes and no (p<0.001), (iv) currently use contraceptive, yes and no (p<0.05), (v) living with husband, yes and no (p<0.01) and (v) currently working status (p<0.05). Person’s correlation coefficients exhibited that respondent’s age, age at first marriage and age at first birth were significantly (p<0.001) positively related with BMI of married women in reproductive age, and there was a negative association between number of ever born children and BMI (p<0.001). Two level regression model demonstrated that age and age at first marriage of women were positively (p<0.01) related with their BMI. Parity was negatively related with women’s BMI. BMI was especially less pronounced among non-pregnant married women who came from rural, uneducated, uneducated husband, came from poor family, house wife, currently not use contraceptive and currently not breastfeeding. Under-nutrition is considered as a major health problems in Bangladesh especially of married women. Government and non-government organization of Bangladesh should take step to increase people education level and improve economic condition for removing under-nutrition among married women. The third and final main objective of this thesis was to quantify the prevalence of anemia and assessed how various nutritional, socio-economic and demographic factors associated with anemia among non-pregnant women in Bangladesh. Anemia is one of the most common and global public health problems. Highly prevalence of anemia was found among women of reproductive age in the world especially in developing countries. Study on anemia among Bangladeshi non-pregnant married women is poorly documented. Cross-sectional data were used in this study. Data was extracted from Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) 2011. The nationally representative sample (5,293 married women) was selected by multistage stratified cluster sampling and data was collected from July 8, 2011 to December 27, 2011. Multilevel (two level) logistic regression analysis was done in this study. The prevalence of anemia among Bangladeshi married women was more than 41% and among anemic women, 35.5% was mild, 5.6% and only 0.2% were moderate and severe anemic respectively. Chi-square (χ2-test) test was utilized in this study for selecting independent factors for multilevel logistic regression analysis. χ2-test demonstrated that residence (p<0.001), respondents’ and her husbands’ education levels (p<0.001), currently breastfeeding (p<0.001), currently amenorrhea (p<0.001), currently use contraceptive (p<0.001), toilet facility (p<0.01), religion (p<0.001), wealth index (p<0.001), BMI (p<0.001), age group (p<0.001), number of ever born children (p<0.001) were significantly associated with anemia. The two level logistic regression model demonstrated that women who were currently breastfeeding and amenorrhea had more likely (p<0.01) to get anemia than their counterparts. Underweight women had a higher chance (p<0.01) to get anemia than normal weight, overweight and obese. Uneducated women were more likely to get anemia (p<0.01) than secondary and higher educated. Anemia was especially less pronounced among non-pregnant women who are currently use contraceptive (p<0.05), Muslim (p<0.01) and came from rich family (p<0.01). Moreover, women who were 30-49 years old had more likely to get anemia than younger (p<0.01). Under-nutrition is most important predictor for anemia among Bangladeshi married women and undernourished women are living under poor condition. Government of Bangladesh should take appropriate initiative to improve economic condition for removing anemia among married women.
Probability Pattern and Effect of Extinction of Disease on Expectation of Life in Bangladesh
(University of Rajshahi, 2014) Sarkar, Aziza Sultana Rosy; Islam, Md. Nurul
Mortality is one of the three components of population change. There are several causes of mortality which are different from country to country, age to age, sex to sex and present to past. A large number of people die every year by various causes of mortality in the world. Some causes of mortality mostly which are communicable are almost eradicated by following preemptive measures whereas some other causes of mortality i.e. non-communicable diseases exhibit challenging burden. In this study an investigation has been made to get a clear conception regarding mortality, morbidity and relevant issues. So, the purpose of this study is to examine the trends and probability patterns of deaths by age due to a cause of deaths in presence of all causes and also to identify the main causes of deaths those influence the mortality rate. An attempt has also been made the eliminating effect of specific diseases on expectation of life. Again, one of the components of population analysis is the study of differential of mortality classified by socioeconomic status and demographic characteristics. Thus this study attempts to identify important factors influencing non-communicable diseases related mortality. Finally, we find out the expected non-communicable disease related deaths in Bangladesh and setting the targets to control non-communicable diseases as a future plan in health sectors. Mortality trends and patterns in Bangladesh are primarily presented in the form of frequency distributions, prevalence rates, and mortality rates. This study uses Abridged Life table, Multiple Decrement Life table, Single Decrement Life table, Exponential Growth model, Polynomial Regression model, Logistic Regression model and ARIMA model for analyzing data to quantify the objectives of the study. This study uses the vital registration and maternal and child health data gathered from Matlab, Bangladesh in 2000, 2004 and 2008 collected by the Health and Demographic Surveillance System of ICDDR,B (International Centre for Diarrhea Disease Research, Bangladesh). Also, this study based on primary data which have been collected from 30th ward in Rajshahi City Corporation, Bangladesh. The result of this study shows that a huge number of people died because of non-communicable diseases. This number rapidly increases year by year at a large scale. Among non-communicable diseases, circulatory system related diseases (stroke, ischemic heart disease and hypertensive disease) is significant in Bangladesh. The second major cause of death is neoplasm for the national population. The analysis also warns that the burden of non-communicable diseases will significantly increase as the proportion of people aged over 40 rise. The government of Bangladesh should take necessary action to handle all the non-communicable diseases for achieving desired life expectancies in order to become a healthy nation. Some efforts have been made by governmental and non-governmental organization to set a sustainable system including physician and non-physician workers, health workers. In addition adequate supply and access to the essential medications is keenly ensured especially for the poor. Counseling services about the guidelines, treatments of non-communicable diseases for the male and female need to be arranged. Health services according to age and sex should be fixed up as an immediate goal to control the mounting trends of non-communicable diseases.
Study of Marriage Pattern and Its Implications on Fertility in Bangladesh
(University of Rajshahi, 2011) Khaleque, Md. Abdul; Islam, Md. Nurul; Abedin, Samad
Recent studies on marriage patterns in Bangladesh have revealed a clear trend towards decreasing proportions of married women and an increase in age at first marriage. Despite marriage being one of the most important proximate determinants of fertility, the role of these nuptiality changes on the country's decreasing fertility levels has not been adequately explored. Using data from the 2004 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey, this paper fills this research gap by examining the pattern of marriage and impact on fertility in Bangladesh. Adolescents, their parents and the community should be more aware of the negative consequences of early marriage, early pregnancy and large family size. In Bangladesh there has long been strong social pressure for the preservation of virginity until marriage. This is one of the cultural characteristics of the great majority of people in the country irrespective of their religion. Sex out side marriage occurs only seldom, since pre-marital sex is looked down upon harshly in Bangladeshi society (Maloney and others, 1981 ). Among females almost 95 percent of marriage takes place before the end of their second decade of life. This densely populated country of 136.7 million people (SVRS, 2004) is also characterized by a high population growth rate (1.42 percent annually: BBS, 2004), high nuptiality and low age at marriage (N Islam, 1989). There has been a clear rising trend towards higher age at marriage over time (Islam and Islam, 1993). The study covers a period of nearly 32 years from 197 5 to 2007. The trends in the marriage pattern as well as in the levels of fertility are examined for this period of study. Attempts are made to find the correlated components of marriage and fertility responsible for giving rise to such tends as are observed during the course of analysis. The results show that marriage patterns have been changing over time. Analysis of age patterns of marriage by means of Coale's model nuptiality schedule has yielded some interesting results. It has been found that marriage still remains a universal phenomenon in Bangladesh. Early marriage prevails in the population and that marriage not only start early but progresses fast and are concentrated within a short span of time at least in the female population. This study confirms that marriage is almost universal among females in Bangladesh there are very few women who remain single throughout their lives. As in various other developing agricultural societies, early female marriage is customary in Bangladesh. Most female have been married before age 20, with almost 100 percent getting married by the time they reach age 30. Data from the 2004 BDHS indicates that, among the 10205 sampled married females aged below 50 years; about 95 percent had been married when they were below age 20 and only 5 percent were married at 20 years of age or older. In Bangladesh the legal age of marriage is 18 years for the women; however a large proportion of marriages of still take place. Thus, it may be said that about 95 percent of marriages in Bangladesh are teenage or adolescent marriages. This situation gives rise to a very low age at marriage in Bangladesh. This leads to an exceptionally low mean age at first marriages, i.e. 13.4 years. Legislation on age of marriage, therefore, seems to be ineffective in delaying childhood marriage in Bangladesh. In a recent study have observed that a large majority of the rural community in Bangladesh are ignorant about the legal age for marriage and are even less concerned about the negative social and health consequences of adolescent marriage. According to the regression, the TFR equals on average 7 .82 births per women in the absences of contraception (CPR=0), and fertility declines at a rate of approximately 1.0 births per women for each 9% increment in the contraceptive prevalence rate. Under such relationship between TFR and CPR the replacement fertility requires a prevalence level of fertility can be achieved. The regression equation of TFR on CPR suggest that a TFR of 2.5 births per women can be achieved by the year 2015 if the level of CPR is raised to 65% and if the level of contraception is raised to 73% it is possible to achieve a target fertility level of 2.0 per women.