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    REAL ESTATE MARKET OF BANGLADESH: COMPETITIVENESS AND CONCENTRATION
    (© University of Dhaka, 2025-11-05) KHAN, ZARIN MARZAN
    The real estate industry holds a significant position in the economy of Bangladesh. Its contribution to the country's GDP and employment generation is noteworthy. The development of the real estate sector positively impacts various other industries, such as design, construction, banking, and finance. The sector also plays a crucial role in attracting foreign investment to the country. However, unconstrained expansion is causing environmental concerns. Our goal is to analyze the real estate market's competitiveness, identify hurdles, and determine issues affecting the market. A competitive market creates competition among businesses to gain customers, reduce production costs, and determine pricing structure and product quantity. The real estate market is unique and differs from other markets in several aspects. Achieving perfect competition in this market is complex. The real estate market has distinct economic features where price is influenced by various factors, including government intervention, local rules, and land supply. In Bangladesh, area-based fixed prices have been set for land to prevent price bubbles, but price ceilings do not control the selling price, leading to untaxed income and revenue loss. Demand for properties and their geographical location significantly affect construction costs and property value. The availability of common facilities in the locality also significantly influences people's preference and demand for a property. The high price of properties in central business districts often turns them into Veblen goods and attracts the elite class as investment options for their untaxed money. Thus, we have researched Bangladesh's real estate market using mixed methods, including questionnaires and qualitative data analysis. In developing the questionnaire, we have considered companies operating across Bangladesh with a reputable presence in the market, all of which are members of REHAB and possess the necessary project permits. Our efforts to consider various locations revealed that the majority of preferred areas are centered around Dhaka and its environs. Real estate housing concepts have yet to gain widespread traction in local towns. While other major metropolitan areas have entered the real estate market, customer preferences still heavily favor Dhaka, with the city exhibiting a distinct concentration among the regions. The questionnaire has two parts, one focused on customer preferences and the other on entrepreneurs' and real estate professionals' opinions. We have collected authentic data from v reliable customers and representatives of reputable companies at the REHAB Winter Fair 2021. We also reviewed secondary data from various sources to ensure accuracy and relevance. Autonomous demand is the demand for a product that is not influenced by the demand for other products. In Bangladesh, real estate housing is an example of autonomous demand. An increase in autonomous expenditures leads to an equivalent increase in market share and output. Moreover, the preference for certain areas and companies contributes to a concentrated market, thereby offering companies a greater market share. where an increase in demand for a particular company's assets results in an increased market share for that company. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index is used to measure the concentration ratio of the market. An HHI of less than 1,000 is a competitive market, 1,000 to 1,800 is moderately concentrated, and an HHI of 1,800 to 10,000 is a highly concentrated marketplace. The results of the research suggest a relatively competitive market for flats but an oligopoly market for plots, with a concentration of 1292.16 for the area and 1113.51 for companies in the plot market. On the other hand, the concentration for the area is 799.77, and for the company, it is 772.29 in the flat market. Further logistic regression analysis using the odd ratio reveals no specific concentration has been observed for the preferred area or company for both flats and plot markets. The factors that influence the markets have distinct effects on customer preferences, thereby shaping their choices. We have identified significant factors and their impact on market decisions from both customer and supplier standpoints. The valuation provides valuable insights into the current market structure and underlying reasons. The appeal of a particular property to potential buyers is often influenced by a set of factors that are common in both plot and flat markets. Established market leaders typically exert significant influence over these factors. The factors that commonly attract buyers to a specific property, both in plot and flat markets, include the location of the property, reasonable price, brand value of the company, and company rules. Dominant companies in the real estate market often strongly influence these factors, impacting buyer preferences and decisions. There are some distinct factors in the case of plots and flats, which are completely market-specified, whereas large companies have expertise in providing such facilities. Those include improved road systems, urban facilities, easy payment system, future plans of government, goodwill of the company, and individual trust on the company for the plot market and building fittings, modern vi design, extra facilities provided by the specific company, fast handover exclusively subjective for the flat market. We have assessed supporting entities' significance in real estate developers' operations, business, and market strategy using the Likert Scale. The real estate industry has expressed dissatisfaction with the services provided by both government and private entities, citing inadequate support for the needs of real estate developers. There is a prevailing sentiment that the performance of these entities is subpar, falling short of fully satisfying the industry's requirements. Industry stakeholders often use their market power to create barriers preventing new entrants from competing effectively. This manipulation of the industry landscape allows established players to maintain their advantage and stifle competition. Our key research question unequivocally centered on evaluating the competitiveness and concentration of the real estate market in Bangladesh. We have successfully identified a definitive answer to this critical inquiry.
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    Capital Adequacy, Asset Quality and Bank Performance in Bangladesh
    (© University of Dhaka, 2025-07-07) Liza, Farhana Yasmin
    Banks are depository financial institutions connecting the savers and users of fund. These mediators are interpolated between the final borrowers and lenders allowing them well organized allocation of funds in the economy. Entities having excess funds can advance them for rational return to entrepreneurs and other economic units who need funds to take the advantage of economically and financially feasible investment ventures. The presence of financial markets and financial organizations allows such transfer of financial resources. Thus, both the borrowers and lenders are well off compared to without financial organizations and intermediaries. It is argued that financial establishments have a progressive role in funding and investment in a multidimensional practice linking the difficulty of numerous interconnected and inter-reliant factors of differentiated nature. It is difficult to assess the contribution of each factor independently. The pivotal purpose of financial organization with other non-depository institutions is to support in the distribution of country‘s scarce capital among several alternative investment areas. Thus, the financial market plays a twin role, providing numerous types of investment fund and disciplining businesses, which are incompetent and fail to follow profitable income objectives. Thus, it is observed that financial institutions especially commercial banks if rightly organized and directed can help expansion of our economy. In the context of Bangladesh has an option, efforts to be designed at nurturing banking activities for accelerating the economic wheel of the country. Notwithstanding its significant merits, it is also not desirable to overlook the problems of the nation‘s crisis oriented banking structure, which requires appropriate guideline of the banking procedure in order to safeguard effective use and watching of business funds. i The appearances of a non-performing supervisory structure are evident in the banking area of Bangladesh. Because of the inefficient and corrupt-ridden banking structure, there was fear that a huge part of the bank credit would turn into classified and defaulted loans. The prevailing extensive spread of default culture has to increase the costs of financial intermediation by banks and financial institutions revealed in recent years. The motives for this default culture on a huge scale are also intensified by politically motivated and influenced credit provided by public sector loans and given to sponsor-director by private sector banks and due to the flaw of legal and organizational arrangements for defaulted and outstanding loan recovery. These aspects badly influence the financial segment and its setting for successful operation for achieving the desired goals. Therefore, the flow in credit distributions need to be disciplined to avoid more worsening in the financial and banking sector for upholding quality of commercial bank advancing by developing the organizational setting and that is considered as one of the prime apprehension of banking sector. Over the previous years, varieties of theories and different analyses have appeared in bank management arena. These developments viewed that bank management issues to be determined by extensive range of aspects i.e., profitability, capital adequacy, asset quality and other related factors. In this thesis studies related to the above mentioned areas have been thoroughly analyzed and discussed in a sequential manner. The sequence of analysis suggests that the results are diverse in nature reflecting the models and methodologies used in different countries and dependent on the financial and regulatory structure of the countries under study. ii In this thesis an attempt has also been made to give an insight into the different types of banks operating in Bangladesh, their performance with respect to profitability, return on asset, return on equity, classification of loans and capital adequacy under the different structural settings and different rules and regulations at domestic and international settings. An insight into the above mentioned areas of banking system of Bangladesh revealed that bank profitability, return on equity, return on asset and capital adequacy ratios have wide variations during the study period. Moreover, it is documented that non-performing loan has been increasing trend over the years and capital adequacy ratio of different banks are not uniform. There exists gap between the regulatory requirements and the amount of capital maintained by banks. Additional dimension has also been observed with the introduction of Basel in the banking sector of Bangladesh. Diverse results have been observed for the capital base during the pre-Basel and post Basel era. We are optimistic that the country‘s banking sector will able to overcome the existing problems in the banking sector with the introduction of different government rules and regulations and efficient governance measures in the banking sector. In the ‗Research Design‘ chapter of the study, at first, strands of literatures on research philosophies, research designs, research approaches, and research methods were discussed. Then the researcher specified the chosen research methods, and also provided the rationale behind such choices. The researcher then focused on the data collection mechanism, sampling framework and major choices made during the data management process. At the later segment of this chapter, the ethical dilemmas related to data collection phase were highlighted. In the conceptual framework segment, the econometric challenges related to multiple regression analysis were presented. The researcher has also discussed how those challenges were managed. iii The researcher followed positivism as the chosen research philosophy. As per the positivism philosophy it is believed that there exists only one state of reality at a given point in time; respondents‘ cognitive biases do not affect the decision-making process; and researcher can objectively detach him/her from the research process. It was a secondary data driven study and the researcher did not collect primary data through FGD, survey or interview. So, the collected data was free from standard survey biases and the research results were not subject to social scientist‘s interpretation. Deduction was the chosen research approach. In a deductive approach, tentative null hypotheses are formed and these are tested using the collected data. Theory formation is not the researcher‘s objective, rather researchers try to test the empirical validity of a theory in deductive research. The researcher tested research hypotheses [constructed based on the established theory] in Bangladeshi context. In case of qualitative research, research inputs and outputs are non numeric. On the other hand, in case of quantitative research, research inputs and outputs are numeric. In case of mono-qualitative research, researchers use only one qualitative tool like interview, FGD etc. In case of multi-qualitative research, researchers use only more than one qualitative tool. In case of mono-quantitative research, researchers use only one quantitative tool like descriptive statistics, regression etc. In case of multi-quantitative research, researchers use only more than one quantitative tool. A number of quantitative methods were used in this thesis. It was basically a multi-method quantitative business research. Research designs are of different types – archival research, case study, focus group discussion, survey etc. Survey, interview, and focus group discussion etc. are popular ways to collect primary data. Case study, and archival research etc. are popular ways to collect secondary data. This research is based on archival research. The data depository used in the iv research is based on an in-house constructed excel template. As already mentioned, the researcher used secondary data for this research. The data was collected from annual reports of Bangladesh-based commercial banks. Since annual reports are available in the public domain there is no need to seek for prior permission. Macro-economic data was downloaded from Bangladesh bank website. In a standard survey and interview-based research, generally researchers face a number of ethical concerns. Participation in the survey and interview needs to be voluntary; there should not be any discrimination based on gender, income level, and religious belief; and participation of the survey respondents should remain anonymous. Since it was secondary data-based research and the data was collected from a publicly available source with no pre-extraction and post-extraction clauses, the researcher fraught limited number of ethical challenges while conducting the research. The researcher employed purposive sampling [also known as judgemental or subjective sampling] for to select traditional commercial banks. In a purposive sampling, all the economic unit does not have the equal chance to be selected; so basically, it is a non probability-based sampling. The research time period spanned from 2011 to 2023. The constructed panel database had both cross-sectional and time-series variations – these variations were later exploited while building models. All the baseline regressions were run under the OLS (ordinary least square) framework. Before running the regressions, the researcher ensured that the pre-conditions [linearity in parameter, random sampling, consistency, no full rank issues] were met. The researcher went through the empirical literatures and then selected the set of independent variables. That is why, the researcher believes that the omitted variable concern is partially mitigated. Instrumental variables were used to check out whether ‗reverse causality channel‘ is a valid v source of endogeneity into the model or not. Robustness of the estimated effects were evaluated against measurement issues and heterogeneity concerns. The researcher has used multiple definitions of independent variables to mitigate proxy variable measurement issues. Robustness of the estimated effects were also tested by splitting the dataset into two portions [70% and 30% split-up]. Since the researcher dealt with panel data, there were two choices before the researcher – either to run a fixed-effects model or a random-effects model. As per the Hausman test result, the researcher used fixed-effects model [firm-fixed effects] in case of every specification. Moreover, fixed-effects model is more flexible with its treatment related to cross-sectional heterogeneity. In the ‗Empirical Analysis‘ chapter of the thesis, the researcher has at first presented the baseline regression results to better understand the profitability determinants. The sign and the magnitude of the regression coefficients were the key area of interest. Commercial bank‘s profitability was defined through three perspectives – accounting profit (measured through ROA), economic profit (measured through residual income), and market‘s perception of profit (measured through CAPE). It was evident that business size, activity mix, cost management, interest rate, GDP growth rate, asset quality, net interest margin positively influenced the accounting profitability of commercial banks. It was also evident that capital adequacy and inflation rate negatively influenced the accounting profitability of commercial banks. For the first baseline regression equation, most of the regression coefficients were both economically and statistically significant. It was evident that business size, activity mix, cost management, interest rate, GDP growth rate, asset quality, net interest margin positively influenced the economic profitability of commercial banks. It was also evident that capital adequacy and inflation rate negatively influenced the economic profitability of commercial banks. For the second baseline regression equation, vi most of the regression coefficients were both economically and statistically significant. It was evident that business size, activity mix, cost management, interest rate, GDP growth rate, asset quality, net interest margin positively influenced the market-based profitability measures of commercial banks. It was also evident that capital adequacy and inflation rate negatively influenced the market-based profitability of commercial banks. For the third baseline regression equation, most of the regression coefficients were both economically and statistically significant. In the baseline models, fixed effects models [firm-fixed effects] were run. The choice of firm-fixed effects was inspired by Hausman-test results and the conceptual flexibility embedded in the model. The estimated effects are robust to model preference as the regression sign does not flip and level of significance does not change when the researcher use random effects model. Baseline regression results were extracted based on OLS [ordinary least square] framework; OLS is a special case of GLS and its applicability is certainly quite limited. Most of the inbuilt assumptions of OLS are not realistic like linear in parameter, homoscedasticity etc. Regression errors are normally distributed only under some very specific circumstances. That is why it was important to test whether the regression results hold if different estimation techniques are employed. Similar types of results can be extracted if MLE or GMM estimation techniques are introduced instead of the OLS framework. The estimated effects are robust to out-of-the-sample contexts as the regression sign does not flip when the researcher built the model using 70% data and later tried to predict the remaining 30% data using the estimated model. The researcher did not observe any signs of cross-sectional heterogeneity in the estimated effects. Based on commercial bank‘s size [measured by asset value], commercial banks were divided into vii two groups: large-size banks and small-size banks. Profitability determinants in case of large-sized banks were not different from that of small-sized banks. The researcher then managed endogeneity concerns revolving the baseline results. Endogeneity in the baseline regression can stem from – omitted variable bias, reverse causality channel and measurement error in the independent variable. Omitted variables become part of the regression error and this error can be correlated with the set of independent variables – resulting into endogeneity. Similarly, presence of reverse causality and measurement error in the independent variables would make regression errors strongly connected with the error – resulting into endogeneity. After reviewing the literature, the researcher has identified a number of bank-specific and macro-factors that may have influenced commercial bank‘s profitability. There are at least three aspects of profitability namely liquidity management, management efficiency, and labor efficiency which were omitted from the baseline models. It was evident that asset quality and banks‘ performance is positively related and the regression coefficient is significant in case of all the baseline regression models, once the omitted variables were introduced into the models. It was also evident that capital adequacy and banks‘ performance is negatively related and the regression coefficient is significant in case of all the baseline regression models, once the omitted variables were introduced in the models. As already mentioned, measurement errors in the dependent variables cannot lead to endogeneity problem, but it can increase the variance of the estimators. There are three dependent variables used in the baseline model namely ROA, economic profit and CAPE. In order to mitigate the inflated variance concerns, the researcher used alternative measurement for all these three variables. Instead of using ROA, the researcher used ROE; instead of economic profit, the researcher opted for scaled residual earnings [scaled by bank-level interest income] and instead of 3-year viii moving average based CAPE, the researcher used 5-year moving average based CAPE. It was evident that asset quality and banks‘ performance is positively related and the regression coefficient is significant in case of all the baseline regression models, once the alternative definition of dependent variables were introduced into the models. It was also evident that capital adequacy and banks‘ performance is negatively related and the regression coefficient is significant in case of all the baseline regression models, once the alternative definition of dependent variables were introduced in the models. Chow tests are usually used to look out for structural change or shift in paradigms in case of time series data. The researcher has used Chow tests to investigate whether there exists any structural change in terms of Bangladesh based commercial bank‘s profitability determinants, profitability-asset quality relationship, and profitability-capital adequacy relationship. As already mentioned, Chow tests look out for structural changes in time series data, but similar techniques are applicable in panel dataset as well. It was established through the Chow test that there exists structural change in the dataset in the pre-Basel and post-Basel regime. It was evident that profitability parameters, profit-capital adequacy relationship and profitability-asset quality relationship has changed significantly during the pre-Basel and post-Basel period. Basel accord was phase-wise implemented in Bangladesh based financial sector. In order to better understand the influence of this regulation on bank‘s profitability, the researcher has used Basel dummy variable. It is evident that from the regression results that on an average bank profitability is lower during the post-Basel era than the case with pre-Basel era. The regression parameter associated with Basel dummy is negative and statistically significant. The sign of the regression coefficient makes total sense since extra equity caution was naturally supposed to depress profit numbers. It was further evident through interaction ix effects that the negative profitability-capital adequacy relationship is stronger during the post-Basel era than the case with pre-Basel era. Similarly, it was found that the positive profitability-asset quality relationship is more-stronger during the post-Basel era than the case with pre-Basel era. The substantial features and contribution of this research are provided below: i) Based on the PCA results, it was concluded that 'dimension reduction' would not be an appropriate approach to understanding the profitability determinants of Bangladesh-based commercial banks since the first two principal components can together explain only 45% of the total variation. ii) The researcher designed three regression models for the profitability of Bangladesh based commercial banks. The profitability of commercial banks was defined through three perspectives: accounting profit (measured through ROA), economic profit (measured through residual income), and the market's perception of profit (measured through CAPE). It was evident that several bank-specific, macroeconomic, and industry-specific variables influence commercial banks' profitability. iii) The regression results showed that factors such as business size, activity mix, cost management, interest rate, GDP growth rate, asset quality, and net interest margin positively impacted commercial banks' accounting profitability. Conversely, capital adequacy and inflation rate were found to negatively affect accounting profitability. iv) It was documented that factors such as business size, activity mix, cost management, interest rates, GDP growth rate, asset quality, and net interest margin had a positive impact on the economic profitability of commercial banks. In addition, capital adequacy and the inflation rate were found to negatively impact economic profitability. x v) Similarly, business size, activity mix, cost management, interest rates, GDP growth rate, asset quality, and net interest margin were also observed to positively influence market based profitability measures for commercial banks, while capital adequacy and inflation rate had a negative effect. vi) The estimated effects are robust to ‗Omitted variable bias‘, and ‗Reverse causality‘ concerns. It was observed that the estimated effects are robust to model preference as the regression sign does not flip and the level of significance does not change when the researcher uses a random effects model. Likewise, similar types of results can be extracted if MLE or GMM estimation techniques are introduced instead of the OLS framework. The study documented that the estimated effects are robust to out-of-the-sample contexts [using a 70%-30% training-testing split]. The researcher did not observe any signs of cross sectional heterogeneity in the estimated effects. vii) Chow test results documented a shift in paradigm in the profitability-asset quality and profitability-capital adequacy relationship when pre-Basel and post-Basel regimes are compared. It is evident from the regression result that on average banks‘ profitability is lower during the post-Basel era than the case with the pre-Basel era. It was further evident through interaction effects that the negative profitability-capital adequacy relationship was stronger during the post-Basel era than the case with the pre-Basel era. Similarly, it was found that the positive profitability-asset quality relationship was stronger during the post Basel era than the case with the pre-Basel era. Further study can be undertaken in order to better understand the nexus among bank profitability, asset quality, and capital adequacy with respect to other regulatory shocks like Basel implementation.
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    The Determinants of the Capital Structure of Listed Companies in Bangladesh: An Assessment of Total Factor Productivity
    (© University of Dhaka, 2025-04-10) Jahan, Kawsar
    This study explores the key factors influencing capital structure (CS), with a focus on the impact of total factor productivity (TFP) as the primary indicator of firm productivity in explaining capital structure choices. Despite extensive research on CS decisions since Modigliani and Miller's foundational work in 1958, no definitive theory has emerged to guide optimal financial policy. This research seeks to further examine the relationship between TFP and various forms of debt, specifically total debt (TD), short-term debt (STD), and long-term debt (LTD). The comprehensive analysis investigates how a firm's total factor productivity (TFP), firm-specific characteristics- financial constraints, and the cost of debt affect different debt structures in the manufacturing firms of Bangladesh. The main variable, total factor productivity (TFP), measures the overall efficiency of resource utilization in production, capturing how effectively inputs like labor and capital are combined to yield output. TFP illustrates the portion of output not explained by input quantities, reflecting the effectiveness of input usage, technological advancements, and managerial prowess. It showcases the output-to-input ratio, revealing the efficiency of production. TFP captures the impact of technological progress, often resulting in heightened productivity, and reflects managerial efficiency in organizing production processes. It is influenced by resource allocation, emphasizing the importance of directing resources to their most productive uses. i TFP growth is a key driver of long-term economic growth, enabling higher output without a proportional increase in inputs, thus improving living standards over time. The variations in TFP values can reflect differences in productivity and performance across regions, firms, and industries. Policymakers often use TFP as a guide for economic policies that promote innovation and create a supportive business environment, contributing to overall business development. This research estimates TFP using the Solow Residual method, which, in the context of the Solow Growth Model, provides insights into efficiency and technological progress. By identifying the relationship between TFP and CS, this study seeks to understand the broader implications of technological efficiency on a firm's debt structure. Additionally, it considers firm-specific characteristics such as size, age, tangibility, liquidity, volatility, and non-debt tax shields, along with two key firm heterogeneity factors: financial constraints and the cost of debt. These factors may affect a firm's access to capital. By examining various factors—including TFP, financial constraints, firms’ internal characteristics, and leverage costs—the study offers a detailed analysis of the determinants of CS. In doing so, it provides a fresh perspective on these dynamics within the context of Bangladesh. This study employed the SA index to assess the extent of financial constraints affecting firm behavior within the sample. The SA index serves as an evaluative indicator for financial constraints, categorizing them into two levels based on the quantiles of the index. The variable 'fchigh' is a dummy variable that takes the value of 1 if the SA index is above the 50th percentile and 0 otherwise. ii Additionally, the research introduced the cost of debt as another firm heterogeneity factor in the regression model. The cost of debt was measured using the interest rate. The variable 'Cost' represents leverage cost, which was categorized into two levels based on the quantiles of the institutional development index. The dummy variable 'Cost high' is assigned a value of 1 if the cost of leverage is above the 50th percentile and 0 otherwise. To address endogeneity and firm-specific differences, this research used the two-step system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), as recommended by Arellano and Bond (1991). This method helps mitigate simultaneity issues, such as omitted variable bias and reverse causality, providing more accurate results compared to Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and fixed-effects models. The Hansen test confirmed the validity of the instruments used in the GMM method, with a p-value above 0.05, ensuring that the results were unbiased and efficient by addressing simultaneity concerns. The study collected data from 155 manufacturing firms across 10 industries listed on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) from 2012 to 2022, resulting in a balanced panel dataset of 1,550 observations. Only firms with complete information for the entire period (2012-2022) were included, while those with incomplete data were excluded from the analysis. This research is a pioneering attempt to analyze and strengthen the argument regarding the relationship between total factor productivity (TFP) and capital structure (CS) choices for Bangladeshi firms. The study assesses the connection between TFP and CS using three (3) separate regression models. Each model examines three distinct debt ratios—total debt (TD), short-term debt iii (STD), and long-term debt (LTD)—as the dependent variables. The baseline regression model (1) considered nine firm-specific variables: growth, non-debt tax shield, liquidity, tangibility, volatility, firm size, firm age, return on assets, and the key variable TFP, analyzed for the dependent variables TD, STD, and LTD. The results of regression model (1) revealed that TFP is a significant factor influencing the CS decisions of listed manufacturing firms in Bangladesh. Econometric analysis showed that TFP plays a substantial role, indirectly affecting the ratios of total debt (TD) and long-term debt (LTD), but it does not exhibit a significant link with short-term debt (STD). In addition to TFP, the study incorporated two firm heterogeneity factors—financial constraints and the cost of debt—into two additional regression models (2) and (3) to more comprehensively analyze and explain the relationship between TFP and CS. The model incorporating financial constraints used the SA index to measure a firm's financial difficulties, representing a novel approach. Firms were then categorized into high and low financial constraint groups. The analysis of regression model (2) also includes the original nine variables, along with the financial constraint variable (fchigh) and the interaction between TFP and fchigh. The results of regression model (2) indicated that independently financial constraints are not significantly correlated with short-term debt (STD) and long-term debt (LTD) measures within the companies. However, the study found that firms facing higher financial constraints exhibit a stronger relationship with total debt (TD) compared to those with lower financial constraints. This highlights the importance of financial constraints as a significant factor for manufacturing firms, suggesting that firms with financial constraints are more iv sensitive in their decisions regarding total debt (TD) only. Furthermore, the interaction between TFP and high-level financial constraints had no impact on any of the three leverage measures (TD, STD, LTD). Third model included two (2) more variable cost of debt and the interaction of TFP and cost of debt (COSTHIGH) along with the original (9) variable of model (1). In regression model (3), the analysis demonstrates that a firm's cost of debt has a significant and positive impact on both total debt (TD) and long-term debt (LTD), showing a positive correlation. High productivity firms signal their ability to access diverse financing options and effectively manage funding through retained earnings. This indicates that manufacturing firms, even when faced with higher debt costs, are inclined to secure loans, as the higher cost serves as a signal of their efficiency and ability to secure both TD and LTD. Furthermore, the research reveals a significant negative interaction effect between the cost of debt and total factor productivity (TFP) concerning TD and short-term debt (STD). However, this joint variable exerts a positive impact on LTD. This underscores the sensitivity of capital structure (CS) in Bangladeshi manufacturing firms to the combined influence of the cost of debt and TFP. High-productivity firms typically prioritize internal financing for TD and STD, aligning with the pecking order theory. In contrast, for LTD, these firms tend to pursue loans at higher costs to capitalize on superior investment opportunities, supporting the trade-off theory. The empirical findings suggest that firms with higher TFP usually have better investment opportunities and are more willing to offer higher interest rates to lenders. This is consistent v with the idea that more productive firms are better positioned to generate higher returns, which allows them to cover the costs associated with debt. Therefore, TFP has a stronger impact on CS for firms facing higher leverage costs. The relationship between TFP and CS is particularly pronounced in scenarios where leverage costs are high, emphasizing the role of leverage cost as a key factor affecting the link between TFP and leverage in manufacturing firms. Higher leverage costs increase the sensitivity of TFP to CS. The study observes that TFP is indirectly associated with both TD and LTD in Bangladeshi firms. Firms with high productivity tend to prioritize internal financing, favoring retained earnings over external debt. This preference suggests that Bangladeshi companies are inclined to favor equity over debt, which aligns with the Pecking Order Theory. Firms with higher productivity and profitability are more likely to opt for equity financing before issuing debt. Thus, TFP, measured by the efficient use of input factors, plays a crucial role in shaping capital structure (CS) decisions. The study also recommends prioritizing technological advancements to boost productivity, which would encourage greater reliance on internal financing. Additionally, factors such as profitability, asset tangibility, and liquidity have an inverse effect on the debt structure, whereas firm age and size positively influence debt decisions. Moreover, the institutional and political environment can shape the relationship between productivity and financing decisions, highlighting the need for future research to explore these dynamics further. It also highlighted that profitability, tangibility, and liquidity are the significant determinants influencing the theories of CS; however, these factors exhibit an inverse relationship with vi STD and LTD, dependable with the pecking order theory. Additionally, the variables of firm age and firm size show a direct relationship with the debt ratio of firms. This research aims to offer valuable insights into the financial decision-making processes of firms, emphasizing the importance of optimal debt management and its influence on productivity and technological progress. The findings are expected to contribute to the academic literature on financial management and provide practical implications for policymakers, investors, and corporate managers. The significant contributions of this study enrich contemporary research on the capital structure of firms in Bangladesh. vii
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    Corporate Governance Reforms and Firm Performance in Bangladesh
    (©University of Dhaka, 2024-11-18) Hossain, Md. Faruk
    The Asian financial crisis of 1997 and global financial crisis of 2007-08 provokes worries about the weakness or failure of the corporate governance rules and practices throughout the world. In Bangladesh, at first the corporate governance guideline (CGG) was issued by the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) in 2006 though it was lagging behind the world’ standard. The collapse of stock market in Bangladesh during 2010-2011 instigates the policy makers and scholars to explore the indispensable areas for the further revisions and amendments in the corporate governance mechanisms and re-examine or review their effects on firm performance. Like many Asian countries (such as India, Malaysia, Singapore, China, Vietnam, Indonesia), most of the Bangladeshi firms are family controlled. There remains a high reluctance in family centric firms to objectively adopt the corporate governance systems for the best interests of shareholders (Hasan et al., 2014). Overall, these facets promote the necessity of learning the new way and remind us to find the new steps of corporate governance mechanisms that will let the firm to yield corporate effectiveness and efficiency in attaining the shareholders’ wealth maximization. In family controlled firms, the monitoring role from the body of independent directors is mostly expedient to protect the interests of the non-family (minority) shareholders. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the proportion of independent directors to the corporate board shall be increased in family controlled firms for effective monitoring and better performance of firms. In Bangladesh, CGG issued in 2006 have been revised in 2012 and 2018. The major areas of the corporate governance reforms in Bangladesh that concern this study are: (a) board independence –the ratio of independent directors to non-independent directors in a board shall be 1:5 as of CGG of 2012, up from the previous recommendation of 1:10 as of CGG of 2006; (b) qualifications of independent directors are precisely mentioned in the corporate governance code issued in 2018; (c) independence of audit committee – appointing an independent director as the chairman of audit committee becomes compulsory to all listed firms as per corporate governance guidelines issued in 2012; (d) audit committee meeting- executing at least four meetings by audit committees becomes compulsory as per corporate governance code issued in 2018; and (e) CEO duality (when the board chair and the chief executive officer are same person) become strictly iv proscribed as compulsory basis as per corporate governance guidelines issued in 2012. Ultimately, this prohibition leads many listed firms to maintain a family-CEO duality which is referred to a situation when the chairman of a board and the chief executive officer are not the same person but they belong to the same family. It is argued that family directors keep family control over the board through family-CEO duality even in the absence of CEO-duality. Thus, this study considers the family-CEO duality as a neo CEO duality. Moreover, family directors usually hold substantial stake of the family centric firm and occupy majority seats of the board. This dominance might instigate them to easily grab the opportunity of expropriating the firms' wealth at the cost of non family shareholders’ interests. Considering whole these things, this study empirically examines the influence of board independence, audit committee independence, audit committee meeting, family-CEO duality, and family ownership on firm performance. Further to this, this study investigates the moderating role of family-CEO duality and family ownership on the relationship between board independence and firm performance. This study collected data from a sample of 210 non-financial companies those were listed with the Dhaka Stock Exchange between the years of 2000 and 2020. A total of 2655 firm-year observations (unbalanced panel) have been selected for 21 years longitudinal data panel. This study applies two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM) approach for econometric analysis of data. This approach is more sophisticated to control for endogeneity problems inherent in the data variables. This study finds that any increase in the proportion of independent directors to the board does not lead to improve the performance of firms. Similarly, independent chairman of the audit committee does not lead to enhance the performance of firms. But, the board independence as well as audit committee independence positively influences firm performance when firms appoint qualified independent directors through complying with corporate governance code of 2018. The findings of the study also reveal that frequency of audit committee meeting is not beneficial to firms even though audit committee meets at least four times in a year. Further to this, this study documents that family-CEO duality and family ownership are negatively associated with firm performance. These results suggest that family-CEO duality does not make a board free from excessive influence of family dominance. As a result, this family control provides them with excessive power to expropriate firms’ assets for family benefits at the cost of non-family shareholders’ benefits. By the same token, family ownership incentivizes the family v directors to achieve their personal benefits rather than organizational benefits, consistent with the entrenchment effect. The results also show that the interaction of board independence and family-CEO duality is significantly and positively associated with performance of firms. Similarly, the interaction of board independence and family ownership is positively and significantly related to performance of firms. These findings indicate that both family-CEO duality and family ownership moderate the relationship between board independence and performance of firms. Based on the findings of this study, it is concluded that effective reforms in corporate governance mechanisms are crucial for enhancing the performance of firms. The findings of this study have significant policy implications for the companies, investors, regulators and policy makers in Bangladesh. First, firms may get important insights for designing the structure and composition of the board, which will help them attain higher productivity and more efficiency. Second, investors may consider the issue of family-CEO duality and family ownership while choosing their optimal investment portfolio. Third, the regulators and the policymakers may design and impose more standard rules and regulations taking account of family dominance in Bangladeshi listed firms that could encourage the firms to practice better monitoring, more transparency, and enjoy better performance. This will contribute to the development of capital market and economic growth of Bangladesh.
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    Analysis of Credit Risk Management in the Listed Commercial Banks of Bangladesh
    (©University of Dhaka, 2024-04-30) Uddin, Md. Kutub
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    Risk Management in Banks: It’s Relationship with the Financial Performance of Commercial Banks in Bangladesh
    (©University of Dhaka, 2024-03-14) Rashaduzzaman, Md.
    Risk management is an essential element of bank and financial intermediation. Failure to effectively evaluating and managing the risks factors may lead to losses that threaten the health of the bank and the sustainability of the entire financial system. Most of Bangladesh’s commercial banks have their own guidelines and procedures for managing the core risk areas i.e. Credit Risks, Market Risks, Operation Risk and Liquidity Risk to ensure the bank’s sustainable development and manages all risks factors. This study analyzes the impact of risk management factors on the financial performance of commercial banks operating in Bangladesh both in the short run and long run considering internal and external control factors. This study also review the existing risk management related policies, guidelines and practices in commercial banks operating in Bangladesh. After reviewing risk management related theories, Bangladesh Bank policies and guidelines related to risk management and empirical literatures, this study identify dependent variables as return of asset (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) as proxy of financial performance and independent variables including log of non-performing loan ratio (LnNPLR) as proxy of credit risk, log of net interest margin (LnNIM) as proxy of interest rate risk, log of foreign exchange gain/ losses (LnFexGL) as proxy of foreign exchange risk (both are component of market risk of the banks), loan to deposit ratio (LDR) as proxy of liquidity risk and log of cost to income ratio (LnCIR) as proxy of operational risk. This study include proxy variable related to type of banking operations in Bangladesh like Islamic banking or Conventional banking in to the econometric models. Gradually, it does include Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) as proxy of within banking industry concentration control variable and GDP Growth Rate & Inflation Rate as proxy of macro-economic variables into the econometric models. The econometric models have been developed to examine both long run and short run effect of the independent variables on the dependent variables to establish the research questions. The secondary data has been accumulated from the annual reports of all the commercial banks operating in Bangladesh during the study period, i.e. from 2014 to 2019. After panel data set validation, this study used STATA – 12 version to test long term and short term impact of dependent variables on the independent variables to check the impact of risk factors on the financial performance of local commercial banks operating in Bangladesh during the period. To check the long run effect of the dependent variables on the independent variables, this study examine the output of both random effect GLS regression model and fixed effect regression model for all the econometric models. Hausman Test result has been used to determine the appropriate model for analyzing long run effect of the econometric models. Two step system GMM model has been used to check the short run impact of the dependent variables on the independent variables for all the econometric models. The empirical output of first econometric models shows that, the bank specific risk factors, credit risk and operational risk has negative impact of both the dependent variables, i.e. financial performance of commercial banks operating in Bangladesh during the study periods, both in the long run and short run, considering bank specific control factors only, which is also in line with the statistical assumption of this study. The other risk factor, market risk (including both interest rate risk and foreign exchange risk) has positive impact of both the dependent variables, i.e. financial performance of commercial banks operating in Bangladesh during the study periods, both in the long run and short run, considering bank specific control factors only, which is also in line with the statistical assumption of this study. But, the other risk factor, liquidity risk showed different behaviors in different part of this study. Liquidity risk has negative correlation with both the dependent variables, i.e. ROA & ROE in the long run while have positive correlation with ROA and negative correlation with ROE in the short run. When this study included within banking industry concentration control proxy variable ―HHI‖ in to the second econometric model, the liquidity risk behaves differently, i.e. liquidity risk showed positive correlation with both the dependent variables, i.e. ROA & ROE, both in the long run and short run, which is also in line with the statistical assumption of this study. However, when this study included macro-economic control variables ―GDP Growth rate‖ and ―Inflation rate‖ into the third econometric model along-with within banking industry concentration control proxy variable ―HHI‖ and bank specific control variable ―Bank Size‖, foreign exchange risk showed negative correlation with ROA but have positive correlation with ROE in the long run while has positive correlation with both ROA & ROE, i.e. financial performance of commercial banks operating in Bangladesh in the short run. The foreign exchange risk behaves differently in the long run with two dependent variables, i.e. ROA and ROE due to different types of dividend payout policies and capital management policies of the commercial banks operating in Bangladesh, which may have influence on the ROE ratio calculation techniques for the Banks. The correlation between other risk factors and profitability of the banks are in line with the statistical assumption of this study considering all the internal and external control factors into the model. After reviewing all the outputs of the econometric models, it has been observed that, Banks’ can manage their credit risk and operational risk efficiently through implementation of prudent policies, guidelines and ensure proper monitoring, compliances to minimize losses as well as improve their financial performance. But there may have influence of some external factors on the liquidity risk and market risk of the banks. Which has been analyzed and empirically tested through examined econometric models of this study, i.e. bank should analyzed other external factors like banking industry concentration and macro-economic variables like GDP Growth Rate and Inflation Rate carefully while managing the liquidity risk and market risk in addition to all the bank specific risk factors for commercial banks operating in Bangladesh during the study period. Based on the findings, this study made some recommendation for the stake holders of the commercial Banks operating in Bangladesh, which will be effective to manage its risk factors as well as financial performances.
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    A Study on the Efficiency of Microfinance Institutions in Bangladesh
    (©University of Dhaka, 2024-03-13) Samina, Quazi Sagota
    With the innovation and rapid expansion of the new concept “Microfinance”, researchers, policymakers and donors at the recent time have found it very essential to observe how efficiently Microfinance Institutions are operating in economy. If the MFIs are not able to achieve efficiency, they would not be able to sustain in the long run being lagging behind in achieving their social objective. This PhD report focuses on the issue in respect of MFIs in Bangladesh. This is the first paper that applies both parametric and non-parametric models to measure cost efficiency on a large sample size including 146 MFIs in Bangladesh over 2016-2020. Along with efficiency estimates, the paper analyzes the effect of outreach variables on the level of efficiency. This enlightens the current concern regarding the trade-off between sustainability and efficiency of microfinance institutions. My research finds that the MFIs in Bangladesh are on an average 78% efficient indicating that these institutions have scope to reduce their cost by around 22% to produce the same output level. Also, it is found that outreach is being compromised to achieve efficiency as MFIs are more interested to provide larger loan amounts to the comparatively well-off poor in the society. However, the MFIs in Bangladesh are able to achieve efficiency by concentrating credit disbursement to the women borrowers as women borrowers are more active in utilizing the loan amount and thus creating sufficient earning sources to repay the loan. Moreover, the economies of scale is found in the sector indicating that MFIs here have opportunity to serve the poor at lower cost and thus attain better outreach by expanding their size. Thus, the my thesis will facilitate the MFIs to direct their resources properly and achieve efficiency, policymakers to decide how this sector can be utilized to achieve social welfare as well as donors to decide to which MFIs they want to steer their fund.
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    Price performance of IPOs in Bangladesh and its behavioral explanations
    (©University of Dhaka, 2024-01-08) Haque, Ms. Rumana
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