Long-Term Electricity Supply and Demand Projection upto 2050 in Bangladesh – A LEAP Based Scenario Analysis

Abstract

This thesis examines the potential evolution of electricity demand, the generation mix, and associated emissions in Bangladesh through to 2050. The analysis is conducted using the LEAP modeling platform, focusing exclusively on the electricity sector. Four future scenarios are evaluated: Business-as-Usual (BAU), Accelerated Development (ADS), Low-Emission Sustainability (LESS), and Moderate Transition (MTS). The model first validates data from 2013–2022 against official statistics, after which trends are projected based on scenario specific assumptions for population growth, GDP, electrification, and technology adoption. The power generation mix in the model includes combined-cycle gas, steam, and oil-fired plants, with solar and nuclear power contributions incorporated through capacity and generation projections. Emissions of CO₂, CO, CH₄, and NOₓ are calculated using LEAP’s Effects framework. Across all scenarios, electricity demand is projected to grow, but the timing and magnitude of emissions peaks differ. The BAU scenario maintains a reliance on older, oil intensive generation, resulting in the highest cumulative emissions. The ADS scenario expands capacity rapidly, creating a sharp emissions peak in the late 2020s, followed by a decline as more efficient plants replace legacy units. The LESS scenario achieves the lowest emissions by 2050 through accelerated efficiency improvements and a cleaner energy supply, though it is the most challenging to implement. The MTS scenario provides a balanced outcome, with an earlier emissions peak and gradual decline, placing it between BAU and LESS in terms of both cumulative emissions and fossil fuel capacity. Given Bangladesh’s current constraints, the MTS pathway offers a practical approach that yields meaningful and credible emission reductions.