Optimization of Hybrid Renewable Energy System HRES) for Electrification of a remote rural area in Cox's Bazar
Date
2025-10-25
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering (EEE), Islamic University of Technology(IUT), Board Bazar, Gazipur-1704, Bangladesh
Abstract
This thesis investigates a cost-reliable Hybrid Renewable Energy System (HRES) tailored for
rural demand, emphasizing uncertainty in resources and load. We consider photovoltaic
generation, a biomass unit, and battery storage, and model variability via probabilistic
strategies—Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), Point Estimation Method (PEM), and
Scenario-Based Analysis (SBA). Hourly solar irradiance, ambient temperature–dependent PV
output, biomass fuel availability, and community load are represented as random variables;
sampling/aggregation produces scenario sets fed to an optimization framework. Two hybrid
optimizers are implemented: a time-focused PSO–GA–GWO and an accuracy-focused
PSO–GWO–WOA. The objective function minimizes total system cost under a loss of power
supply probability (LPSP) constraint, with lifecycle economics over a 20-year horizon. Results
show that the proposed HRES meets the target reliability of LPSP ≤ 3% while reducing
levelized cost by a considerable margin when compared with a deterministic baseline. Sensitivity
analyses over a particular range solar variance and load variance indicate robust performance,
with optimal capacities of PV: [Npv] kWp, biomass: [Pbio] kW, and battery: [Ebat] kWh. The
findings demonstrate that explicitly modeling uncertainty and optimizing against expected
outcomes yields designs that are both economically competitive and operationally reliable,
providing a defensible pathway for village-scale electrification.
Description
Supervised by
Mr. Quazi Nafees-ul-Islam,
Assistant Professor,
Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering (EEE)
Islamic University of Technology (IUT)
Board Bazar, Gazipur, Bangladesh
This thesis is submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of Bachelor of Science in Electrical and Electronic Engineering, 2025
Keywords
HRES, uncertainty modeling, LPSP, MCS, PEM, SBA, PSO, GWO, WOA, rural electrification
Citation
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