Impact of Exchange Rate Depreciation on Export of Bangladesh: An ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) Model

Abstract

This paper is to examine the impact of depreciation of exchange rate on export of Bangladesh. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (having lags of both dependent and independent variables) has been used to test this. From the analysis it has been found that depreciation at some lags has positive impact on export. But current-period depreciation has negative impact on export (this result goes with the findings of Fang. Lai, Miller. 2005 & Fang. Miller. 2004 where they showed that too much fluctuation in exchange rate might have offset the growth in export generated by depreciation). However. both the relations are statistically significant. These findings somehow go with the celebrated .l-curve effect which points out deterioration before an improvement in a country's trade balance resulting from a depreciation or devaluation. So in Bangladesh depreciation might not be a correct choice ifwe want to increase export within a short span of time. This analysis also shows that the income of the consumers of our exportable does not have significant effect on our export i.e. our export is income inelastic.