Future Changes of Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Temperature Over Bangladesh Using 27 CMIP6 Models

Abstract

This research aims to investigate the future changes in summer monsoon rainfall and temperature in Bangladesh. The study revealed that INM-CM5-0 is the best model for projecting temperature, while BCC-CSM2-MR is the best model for projecting rainfall over Bangladesh. Using data from a large ensemble of 27 models from CMIP6, the study examined the rainfall and temperature change projections of Bangladesh during the twenty first century relative to the reference period (1981–2014) under SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5. Under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, the multi-model ensemble monsoon mean rainfall over Bangladesh will fluctuate between 40 and 260 mm and 100 and 900 mm, respectively. In most parts of the country’s north, northeastern, and western regions, the projected changes in spatial patterns of monsoon rainfall indicate an increase in rainfall. The projected temperature indicated that Bangladesh’s northwest and west-central areas could face the most significant rise in temperatures, surpassing 3.8 °C under SSP5-8.5.