Dynamics and Structural Breaks in Tourist Arrivals in Australia

Abstract

This paper analyses the effects of the real exchange rate and world income on aggregate international tourism in Australia. This study uses Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modelling to develop a dynamic structure of tourism demand. Using monthly post-float data from 1984:01 to 2015:01, it has been found that a 1 % real appreciation of the Australian dollar reduces tourist arriv-als by 1.23 % while a 1 % rise in world income increases tourist arrivals by 2.26 % in the long-run. The deviation from the long-run equilibrium is correct-ed by nearly 9 % over a month. One of the endogenously determined structural break dates was negative and statistically significant indicating non-linearity in the Australian aggregate tourist demand function.