Browsing by Author "Rahman, M. Sayedur"

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Analysing the Variability of Rainfall Threshold Values for Drought Prognosis in Bangladesh
(University of Rajshahi, 2013) Alam, Md. Mahbub; Rahman, M. Sayedur; Hossain, Md. Ripter
The Rainfall plays a significant role in the agriculture of country. Rainfall is the most important weather parameter affecting non-irrigate crop areas for Bogra, Jessore and Feni water deficits and excess water are the greatest constraints for rainfall rice yields in this region. The daily rainfall data for 30 years during the period 1981-2010 of the rainfall stations in Bogra, Jessore and Feni are considered in this study. The daily data were reduced in the weekly form and the drought index has been calculated using the probability of Markov chain model. Drought is temporary but complex feature of the climate system. Agricultural drought is mainly concerned with inadequacy of rainfall. Markov chain model have been used to evaluate probabilities of getting a sequence of wet-dry weeks over this region. An index based on the parameters of this model has been suggested for agricultural drought measurement in this region. The results of our Bogra district annually rainfall data we observed the moderate drought, pre-kharif rainfall data we observed the mild occasional and moderate drought, kharif rainfall data we observed the occasional and rabi rainfall data we observed the chronic prone. As a result failure of rains and the occurrence of drought during any particular growing season lead to severe food shortages. A Markov Chain model is established to fit daily rainfall data for the various aspects of rainfall occurrence patterns and could be mathematically derived from the Markov Chain by using maximum likelihood estimate and these were also established to fit the observed data. The rainfall probability was not found to very much during rabi (November- February) season. But much more variation of rainfall probabilities was observed during both kharif (June-October) and pre-kharif (March- May) seasons. Obviously, one would presume conditions variation in these probabilities also yearly, seasonally and annually. Based on these findings and using chi-square test, it could be concluded that the model fit was good. This study investigates the methods to obtain estimates of the conditional probabilities, the probability of success and its probability distribution to describe the yearly, seasonal and annual variability. The limited data set the results are quite good and the model is doing a reasonably good job of daily rainfall.
Climate Modeling, Drought Risk Assessment and Adapfation Strategies in the Western part of Bangladesh
(University of Rajshahi, 2014) Kamruzzaman, Md.; Jahan, Chowdhury Sarwar; Rahman, M. Sayedur
Climate change is the greatest environmental challenge facing the world today and meteorological extremes like drought have been a subject of global concern since long. Present study on climate modeling, drought risk assessment and adaptation strategies have been carried out in the western part of Bangladesh with the aims of assessing the agricultural drought risk to find out the sustainable adaptation measures in the context of global climate change. Daily rainfall data reduced in weekly form of 12 meteorological stations for the period 1960 to 2011 have been used in this study. Climate modeling has been performed by Mann-Kendall (MK) test statistics (trend detection), Sen's slope estimator (rate of change) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model (future prediction). Drought hazards have been characterized by Markov chain analysis and drought vulnerability explored using socio-economic indicators. Drought risk map has been developed by integrating drought hazard and vulnerability indices by Geographical Information System (GIS). Annual average temperature in the area is about 25.44°C. The lowest mean annual temperature experiences in the north-east and the highest in southwestern part of the area. The spatial pattern of seasonal temperature is similar like annual temperature. Predicted annual mean temperatures by ARIMA model may vary from 24.47 to 25.97, 24.57 to 26.03, 24.69 to 26.03, 24.54 to 26.03 and 24.73 to 26.75°C in the area during the period 2012 to 2016 respectively and they are higher than the long term observed mean temperature. Though temperature is rising, the predicted spatial pattern will remain same in the future. The north-west of the area is more drought prone and less crops prospect area due to the low values of drought index (DI), probability of getting at least 8, 10 and 12 consecutive wet weeks is comparatively low, probability of at least 3 consecutive dry weeks is comparatively high and expected number of wet weeks lies between 7 to 9. The southern part is less drought prone and high crops prospect areas due to the high values of DI, probability of getting at least 8, 10 and 12 consecutive wet weeks is comparatively high, probability ofat least 3 consecutive dry weeks is comparatively low and expected number of wet weeks lies between 10 to 13. Decade and year wise analysis also indicate almost similar results. Annual occurrences and percentage of annual probability indicate that probability of extreme drought occurrence increases in recent decades in Dinajpur, lshwardi and Rajshahi areas, but frequency is decreasing i.e. drought event is becoming more frequent in these areas. In the study area, drought hazard index (OHi) ranges from 15 to 32. Spatial pattern of OHi indicates that northern districts like Panchagarh, Thakurgoan, Dinajpur, Nilphamari, Nawabganj, Naogaon, Rajshahi and Natore suffer from more extreme drought hazards in comparison to rest of the districts. Drought vulnerability index (DVI) indicates that the northern part of the area are exposed to high to very high drought vulnerable as higher percentage of illiterate people, higher dependence on agricultural practices and high percentage of irrigated to cultivable land. The southern part of the study area exposes moderate to low vulnerable as all the values of vulnerability indicators are comparatively low. Drought risk map has been prepared integrating DHI and DVI values and show agricultural drought poses high risk in northern districts and low in southern districts (coastal areas). It is also found that 21.63%, 26.54% and 29.68% of the study area are exposed to very high, high and moderate drought risk respectively. High DHI value due to high variability of rainfall and high DVI due to weak socio-economic conditions has made the northern part turn more drought vulnerable area than other parts. Hazard risk ranking based on frequency and severity of agricultural drought classes indicate even low risk areas also suffer from extreme agricultural drought due to uneven spatiotemporal nature of rainfall during cropping season. To minimize the adverse effect of drought, some adaptation strategies have been suggested based on study findings: socio-economic and physical factors should be included in management policy to make more effective planning. The drought mitigating hydrological adaptation measures should be taken after ranking risks, importance of sector and climate associated events, and effective drought forecasting and warning techniques need to be considered. Therefore, it is urgent to act on adaptation keeping in mind about climate features such as rainfall and temperature variability, possible impacts of climate change and risk ranking to make viable mitigation measures.
Forecasting Estimated Gram Crops in Rainfed Agriculture of Bangladesh
(Eastern University, 2009-07-01) Rahman, M. Sayedur; Farhana, Shila
Sustainability of the cereal based cropping systems has become a critical issue for agriculture in Bangladesh. Pulses play an important role for sustainability of cereal Based cropping systems through biological nitrogen fixation in the soil. They are also important for the nutritional security of the people, especially the children and the lactating women. Pulses are important sources of protein to the diet in Bangladesh and also improve soil quality. Pulses are the best supplements for cereals. Results in this study are derived from pulses (gram) production in ten districts namely Faridpur, Dhaka, Mymensingh, Barisal, Jessore, Khulna, Kushtia, Dinajpur, Pabna and Rajshahi district. The overall growth of gram in the ten districts over time was not uniform. On Average of entire period, gram supply has been declining at sharply. Thus, there is a considerable lag between the introduction of advanced technology and the time when it is in general use and generally has been adapted to the peculiarities of the local environment. The declining rate increases, which indicates that the main cause is adequate environmental resources, although in some areas specific agricultural policies and practices may also, contribute. Pulses or legumes in general must be incorporated, only to complement these systems and not considered as competing crops to any of the components of these systems. This policy will just invigorate the exhausted soil and ensure national food security of the poor people of Bangladesh at least for protein.
Impact of shifting food grain production system on agricultural economy of Bangladesh
(Eastern University, 2008-07) Rahman, M. Sayedur
Climate variability is a powerful physical feature of Bangladesh. It has large impacts both positive and negative on agriculture. This study aims at understanding and analyzing the role, impact and issues related to demand of food grain production system in Bangladesh. It seeks to examine both positive and negative aspects of the food grain production system and its requirements. The spatial distribution of food grain data have come from 64 districts of the year 2000. They have been collected from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics and Food Planning Monitoring Unit, Ministry of Food. The data have been reduced in different form and finally used in the multiple regression models. The statistical software (SPSS) has been used in the analysis. Bangladesh's economy depends on agriculture. Production and marketing together contribute about 50 percent share of the GDP. Poverty is the major determinant of food insecurity. The fitter regression model shows that Aus, Aman, Boro and Wheat production has positive impact on surplus-deficit whereas food grain requirement has negative impact on surplus-deficit. This study will help identify the policies needed for the development of competitive and efficient agricultural markets that could contribute towards reducing rural poverty and promoting agricultural economic growth in the country.
Measuring Patient Satisfaction Level of Out-Patient Department (OPD): A Study on Square Hospital Limited
(Eastern University, 2011-07-01) Forkan, Golam Mohammad; Rahman, M. Sayedur
One of the fastest growing industries in the service sector is the health-care industry. In Bangladesh Square Hospital Ltd. is one of the best and reliable names in the health care industry. Gap between services provided by different functional units and services received by different customers of out-patient department (OPD) has created opportunity for this study. Objective of this study was to measure customer satisfaction level of out-patient department (OPD) of private healthcare industry of Bangladesh by analyzing scenario of Square Hospital Limited. Overall scenario of out-patient department (OPD) shows that, satisfaction is at more than average level but less than satisfactory level. That means, condition is not at satisfactory level but position can be improved. Out of six functional units three (registration desk, waiting room and doctors’ service) are found at satisfactory or little bit better than satisfactory level. But other three units (appointment desk, customer service and nurse station) are found at between average satisfaction and dissatisfaction level.
Stochastic modeling of daily rainfall at Naogaon district in Bangladesh: a comparative study
(Eastern University, 2011-01) Barkotulla, M. A. B.; Rahman, M. Sayedur
The weather plays a significant role in the agriculture of a country. Rainfall is the most important weather parameter affecting non-irrigated crop areas. The region lies in the driest part of the country in terms of rainfall and is semi-arid in character. Markov chain model has been used to evaluate probabilities of getting a sequence of wet –dry weeks over this region. A non-linear proceed, the model is tested using multivariate logistic regression technique. The results showed the relative frequency of rain against the estimated value of P using the logistic regression at 7 days interval. The results of the relative frequencies of 0.29 and 0.71 are similar in the study area. The logistic regression technique allows flexibility in deciding between areas of indicated rain or no rain. The results indicate that no rain is predicted when the estimated value of P is less than 0.5 and rain, when it is greater than 0.5. Therefore when the estimated P is less than 0.1, it is almost not raining. Basically this type of information gives the advantages of logistic regression over a simple threshold technique to agricultural planners and irrigation engineers in identifying the areas where agricultural development should be focused as a long-term drought mitigation strategy.
Study of Climate Variability and Agriculture Drought in Bangladesh
(University of Rajshahi, 2013) Matin, Md. Abdul; Rahman, M. Sayedur; Hossain, Md. Ripter
The climate plays significant role in the agriculture of a country. Rainfall is the most important climate parameter affecting non-irrigated crop areas for Rangpur, Faridpur and Mymensingh. Water deficits and excess water are the greatest constraints for rain fed rice yields in this region. The daily rainfall data for 30 years during the period 1981-2010 of the station Rangpur, Faridpur and Mymensingh districts are considered in this study. This study also considered weekly rainfall for 5 mm and 10 mm. The daily data were reduced in the weekly form and the drought index has been calculated using the probability of Markov chain model and goodness of fit using chi-square test. Drought is temporary but complex feature of the climate system. Agriculture drought is mainly concerned with inadequacy of rainfall. Markov chain model have been used to evaluate probabilities of getting a sequence of wet-dry weeks over this region. An index best on the parameters of this model has been suggested for agriculture drought measurement in this region. The results indicate that the Rangpur, Faridpur and Mymensingh districts are as follows: For Drought Index of Rainfall 5 mm and 10 mm in Rangpur District: the results indicate that the Rangpur region were found the mild drought in Annual, the occasionally drought in pre-kharif and kharif season, and the chronic drought Proneness in Rabi season. For Drought Index Rainfall 5 mm and 10 mm in Faridpur District: the Faridpur region were found the occasionally drought in Annual, pre-kharif and kharif season, and the chronic drought Proneness in Rabi season. For Drought Index Rainfall 5 mm and 10 mm in Mymensingh District: the results indicate that the region were found the mild drought in Annual, the occasionally drought in pre-kharif and kharif season, and the chronic drought Proneness in Rabi season. This study will be constructive to agricultural planners and irrigation engineers to identifying there as where agricultural development should be focused as a long –term drought improvement strategy. The level of drought proneness helps the early detection of agricultural drought and the crop production that is useful for talking timely release and remedy measures and other decisions by several organization of Bangladesh. It will also contribute toward a better understanding of the climatology of drought in major monsoon region of the world.