Browsing by Author "Alam, Md Shabbir"

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A Time Series Forecasting Analysis of Overall and Sector-Based Natural Gas Demand
(Daffodil International University, 22-05-23) Hussain, Anwar; Memon, Junaid Alam; Murshed, Muntasir; Alam, Md Shabbir; Mehmood, Usman; Alam, Mohammad Noor; Rahman, Muhammad; Hayat, Umar
Pakistan is developing South Asian country which is currently considering alternative energy sources including coal, solar, compressed natural gas, and wind energy to cope with the worst energy crisis in its history. Moreover, the policy promotion of compressed natural gas especially in the transport sector has raised concerns about the demand management of natural gas to avoid future shortages and ensure sustainable use of this precious non-renewable source of energy. Against this background, this study aimed to forecast natural gas demand in Pakistan for the 2016–2030 period by applying relevant univariate time series econometric methods. Apart from forecasting the overall natural gas demand, the forecasting analysis is also conducted for natural gas demand in Pakistan’s total natural gas consumption and also for natural gas consumption across the household, industrial, commercial, transport, fertilizer production, power generation, and cement production sectors. Overall, the fndings revealed that ARIMA is the appropriate model for forecasting gas consumption in Pakistan. Further, the growth of increase in the level of compressed natural gas consumption in the household sector is more as compared to all other sectors of the economy up to the year 2030. The key fndings show that (a) natural gas consumption is likely to grow with time, (b) mixed projection trends are observed for the overall natural gas consumption and other sector-based natural gas consumption trends, and (c) the diference between natural gas consumption and production in Pakistan is likely to grow leading to 2030. As part of the policy recommendation in line with the fndings, policymakers in Pakistan should increase the availability of natural gas, particularly in sectors where its consumption is likely to be declining. In addition, more proactive measures should be undertaken to explore the existing natural gas reserves in the long run while also importing natural gas from the neighboring nations in the short run. Furthermore, the government of Pakistan should seriously consider strategizing the development of the nation’s compressed natural gas sector. Keywords Natural gas demand · ARIMA · Holt-Winter · Forecasting · Forecast evaluations · Pakistan
Achieving the Objectives of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals Agenda
(John Wiley & Sons, 2023-09-21) Wen, Zheng Guang; Murshed, Muntasir; Siddik, Abu Bakkar; Alam, Md Shabbir; Lorente, Daniel Balsalobre; Mahmood, Haider
As the global concerns regarding climate change and the related environmental adversities continue to persist alongside rapid development of the world economies, the United Nations declared a set of compressive sustainable development goals (SDG) that are to be realized by the end of 2030. These goals are specifically conceptualized to collectively facilitate the attainment of sustainable socioeconomic development while concurrently improving the quality of the global environment. Hence, this study assesses the interlinkages between economic growth, environmental pollution, financial development, and renewable energy use in light of the objectives of SDG8, SDG13, SDG10, and SDG7 by considering the BRICS nations as a case study. Although the previous studies, in this regard, have predominantly focused on specifically scrutinizing the determinants of these four macroeconomic variables of concern, not much importance was shown to map the interrelationships among these variables. The econometric analysis conducted in this study utilizes quarterly frequency data covering the period from 1990-Q1 to 2020-Q4. Overall, the findings from causality and variance decomposition analyses reveal that in the long run these variables are influenced by each other which, in turn, also verifies the cross-linkages between the four SDG of concern. Besides, the causality-related findings appear to be robust when alternate causality estimators are employed. Therefore, based on these critically important causal relationships, a set of interactive SDG-related policies is recommended.
Decarbonization Pathways
(Daffodil International University, 2022-02-26) Hamid, Ishfaq; Alam, Md Shabbir; Kanwal, Asma; Jena, Pabitra Kumar; Murshed, Muntasir; Alam, Risana
The Paris Agreement has united the global nations to embark on pathways to the decarbonization of their respective economies. However, the objective of achieving low-carbon growth is not as straightforward as it seems since the rapidly emerging and fossil fuel-dependent world economies are focused on expediting economic growth at the expense of poorer environmental consequences. Against this background, this study aims to explore the effects of foreign direct investments, governance, democracy, renewable energy use, and economic growth on carbon dioxide emissions in the context of the BRICS countries over the period from 2006 to 2017. The estimation strategy involved in this study specifically accounts for addressing the issues of cross-sectional dependency and slope heterogeneity in the data set utilized for analysis. The associated findings reveal cointegrating associations between the study variables. Besides, the regression outcomes reveal that good governance (achieved by controlling corruption) and strong democracy (achieved by ensuring greater freedom for journalists) help to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the long run. More importantly, the results also confirm that both good governance and stronger democracy further reduce carbon dioxide emissions by mediating between emission-inhibiting effects of foreign direct investment inflows in the BRICS countries. In addition, good governance and stronger democracy exert moderating effects to reduce the emission-stimulating impacts associated with higher economic growth. Lastly, it is also witnessed that forgoing non-renewable energy use and adopting renewable energy instead help to curb the carbon dioxide emission levels further. Accordingly, considering these key findings, it is recommended that the BRICS countries should enhance the quality of governance and democracy, attract clean foreign direct investments, promote renewable energy use, and adopt clean economic growth strategies to decarbonize their respective economy.
Forecasting Oil, Coal, and Natural Gas Prices in the Pre–and Post-COVID Scenarios
(Elsevier, 2023-02-10) Alam, Md Shabbir; Murshed, Muntasir; Manigandan, Palanisamy; Pachiyappa, Duraisamy; Abduvaxitovna, Shamansurova Zilola
Stock market price prediction is considered a critically important issue for designing future investments and consumption plans. Besides, given the fact that the COVID-19 pandemic has adversely impacted stock markets worldwide, especially over the past two years, investment decisions have become more challenging for risky. Hence, we propose a two-phase framework for forecasting prices of oil, coal, and natural gas in India, both for pre-and post-COVID-19 scenarios. Notably, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, Simple Exponential Smoothing, and K- Nearest Neighbor approaches are utilized for analyses using data from January 2020 to May 2022. Besides, the various outcomes from the analytical exercises are matched with root mean squared error and mean absolute and percentage errors. Overall, the empirical outcomes show that the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average method is appropriate for predicting India's oil, coal, and natural gas prices. Moreover, the predictive precision of oil, coal, and natural gas in the pre-COVID-19 period seems to be better than in that the post-COVID-19 stage. Additionally, prices of these energy resources are forecasted to increase through the year 2025. Finally, in line with the findings, significant policy recommendations are made.
Pathways to Securing Environmentally Sustainable Economic Growth Through Efficient Use of Energy
(Daffodil International University, 2022-02-22) Alam, Md Shabbir; Alam, Mohammad Noor; Murshed, Muntasir; Mahmood, Haider; Alam, Risana
Oman has traditionally relied upon natural gas and oil for meeting its domestic energy demand. As a result, despite growing economically, the level of carbon dioxide emissions in Oman has persistently surged; consequently, the nation has failed to ensure environmentally sustainable economic growth. Against this background, this current study aims to explore the impacts of energy consumption, energy efficiency, and financial development on Oman's prospects of attaining environmentally sustainable growth over the 1972-2019 period. The estimation strategy is designed to take into account the structural break issues in the data. Using the carbon productivity level as an indicator of environmentally sustainable economic growth, we find long-run associations amid the study variables. Besides, higher energy consumption and greater financial development are found to impede carbon productivity while improving energy efficiency is observed to boost carbon productivity in Oman. Therefore, it is pertinent for Oman to consume low-carbon and energy-efficient fossil fuels, improve energy efficiency levels, and green its financial sector to achieve environmentally sustainable growth.
Promoting sustainable economic growth through natural resources management, green innovations, environmental policy deployment, and financial development: Fresh evidence from India
(Scopus, 2024-03) Manigandan, Palanisamy; Alam, Md Shabbir; Murshed, Muntasir; Ozturk, Ilhan; Altuntas, Sumeyya; Alam, Mohammad Mahtab
Given the fact that the Indian government has ratified several international and local agreements for expressing its willingness to promote sustainable economic growth, this study assesses the impacts of natural resource, financial development, green-energy technologies, and environmental policies on India's sustainable economic growth-related performances which is measured by the nation's multifactor productivity-adjusted level of economic output. In this regard, this study uses annual level data spanning from 1990Q1 to 2019Q4 and utilizes them for conducting advanced econometric tests. According to the long-run findings, sustainable economic growth in India is negatively impacted by natural resource consumption and positively impacted by green innovations, financial development, and environmental policy implementations. Besides, the Fourier Toda Yamamoto test's findings show that sustainable economic growth is unidirectionally caused by green innovations and financial development. These results have important policy implications, especially for India's prospects of establishing sustainable economic growth, especially by stimulating green innovations and deploying effective environmental policies. Considering the key findings, the Indian government may enhance the stringency levels of regulatory measures to curb the sustainable economic grwoth-inhibiting effects of natural resources. Further, to control the sustainable economic growth-retarding factors, the government should simultaneously scale monetary allocations for financing projects related to the development of environmental patents so that technologies can be developed for improving environmental well-being while expediting the renewable energy transition process across India.
Promoting Sustainable Economic Growth Through Natural Resources Management, Green Innovations, Environmental Policy Deployment, and Financial Development: Fresh Evidence from India
(Elsevier, 2024-03-15) Manigandan, Palanisamy; Alam, Md Shabbir; Murshed, Muntasir; Ozturk, Ilhan; Altuntas, Sumeyya; Alam, Mohammad Mahtab
Given the fact that the Indian government has ratified several international and local agreements for expressing its willingness to promote sustainable economic growth, this study assesses the impacts of natural resource, financial development, green-energy technologies, and environmental policies on India's sustainable economic growth-related performances which is measured by the nation's multifactor productivity-adjusted level of economic output. In this regard, this study uses annual level data spanning from 1990Q1 to 2019Q4 and utilizes them for conducting advanced econometric tests. According to the long-run findings, sustainable economic growth in India is negatively impacted by natural resource consumption and positively impacted by green innovations, financial development, and environmental policy implementations. Besides, the Fourier Toda Yamamoto test's findings show that sustainable economic growth is unidirectionally caused by green innovations and financial development. These results have important policy implications, especially for India's prospects of establishing sustainable economic growth, especially by stimulating green innovations and deploying effective environmental policies. Considering the key findings, the Indian government may enhance the stringency levels of regulatory measures to curb the sustainable economic grwoth-inhibiting effects of natural resources. Further, to control the sustainable economic growth-retarding factors, the government should simultaneously scale monetary allocations for financing projects related to the development of environmental patents so that technologies can be developed for improving environmental well-being while expediting the renewable energy transition process across India.
Realizing the Sustainable Development Goals Through Technological Innovation: Juxtaposing the Economic and Environmental Effects of Financial Development and Energy Use
(Springer Nature, 2022-09-02) Manigandan, Palanisamy; Alam, Md Shabbir; Alagirisamy, Kuppusamy; Pachiyappan, Duraisamy; Murshed, Muntasir; Mahmood, Haider
The BRICS comprise of group of emerging market economies which are committed to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals agenda of the United Nations by the end of the year 2030. In this regard, it is critically important for these nations to sustain their annual rise in their economic growth rates while simultaneously declining the rate of discharge of carbon dioxide emissions. Against this backdrop, this study aims to investigate how financial development, greater primary energy consumption, and technological innovation affect the prospects of the BRICS nations in achieving economic and environmental sustainability. Considering the period from 1990 to 2020 and utilizing methods that are robust to working with cross-sectionally dependent, heterogeneous, and endogenous panel data, the key analytical findings derived in this study reveal that higher levels of financial development, primary energy consumption, and technological innovation boost the per capita economic growth rates of the BRICS nations. Besides, technological innovation also moderates the financial development–economic growth and the primary energy consumption–economic growth nexuses by jointly boosting economic growth rates with these two macroeconomic variables. On the other hand, financial development and higher primary energy consumption are seen to boost the annual per capita carbon dioxide emission growth in these emerging nations, while technological innovation is observed to do the opposite. Furthermore, technological innovation is witnessed to moderate the nexus between energy use and economic growth to further reduce the emission growth rate in the BRICS nations. Accordingly, a set of policies are recommended to the concerned governments in order to enable the BRICS nations to attain the Sustainable Development Goals agenda.
Roles of Green Intellectual Capital Facets on Environmental Sustainability in Oman
(Informa UK Limited, 2022-12-05) Gharib, Moaz; Alam, Md Shabbir; Hawaldar, Iqbal Thonse; Murshed, Muntasir; Khan, Uzma; Alvarado, Rafael; Rehman, Ijazur
The present study determines the impacts of different types of green intellectual capital such as green human capital, green structural capital, and green relational capital on environmental sustainability in the Sultanate of Oman. It has become a crucial aspect to analyze the effect of green intellectual capital on ecological sustainability. A simple random sample technique is used to assemble data using a structured questionnaire from 205 respondents working at Raysut Cement Company and Salalah Methanol Company in Oman. The covariance-based equation in the structural modeling perspective is used to examine data. The study’s results reveal that green structure-based capital is the only dimension of green Intellectual capital that significantly affects environmental sustainability. In contrast, green human capital and relation-based capital do not substantially affect ecological sustainability. Conclusively, this study also provides ecological strategies that can be useful to enrich organizations to accomplish sustainability.
Roles of Green Intellectual Capital Facets on Environmental Sustainability in Oman
(Daffodil International University, 2022-11-14) Gharib, Moaz; Alam, Md Shabbir; Hawaldar, Iqbal Thonse; Murshed, Muntasir; Khan, Uzma; Alvarado, Rafael; Rehman, Ijaz Ur
The present study determines the impacts of different types of green intellectual capital such as green human capital, green structural capital, and green relational capital on environmental sustainability in the Sultanate of Oman. It has become a crucial aspect to analyze the effect of green intellectual capital on ecological sustainability. A simple random sample technique is used to assemble data using a structured questionnaire from 205 respondents working at Raysut Cement Company and Salalah Methanol Company in Oman. The covariance-based equation in the structural modeling perspective is used to examine data. The study’s results reveal that green structure-based capital is the only dimension of green Intellectual capital that significantly affects environmental sustainability. In contrast, green human capital and relation-based capital do not substantially affect ecological sustainability. Conclusively, this study also provides ecological strategies that can be useful to enrich organizations to accomplish sustainability.
The impacts of globalization, renewable energy, and agriculture on CO2 emissions in India: Contextual evidence using a novel composite carbon emission-related atmospheric quality index
(Daffodil International University, 2023) Alam, Md Shabbir; Duraisamy, Pachiyappan; Siddik, Abu Bakkar; Murshed, Muntasir; Mahmood, Haider; Palanisamy, Manigandan; Kirikkaleli, Dervis
At the 26th Conference of Parties in Glasgow, India declared the environmental agendas of turning carbon neutral by 2070 and substantially lowering its carbon intensity level. Thus, it can be assumed that India is committed to improving its atmospheric health over the next couple of decades. Thus, strategizing plans for limiting carbon emission-related environmental pollution has gone on to become a critically important objective of the Indian government. Against this backdrop, this current study aims to examine the factors influencing atmospheric quality in India. As opposed to the previously adopted approaches in the existing studies, a composite atmospheric quality index is estimated using data concerning different carbon dioxide emission-related atmospheric quality indicators (total carbon dioxide emissions, carbon footprints, and carbon intensity levels). Furthermore, the analysis of the possible non-linear association between renewable energy use and atmospheric pollution makes an additional contribution to the environmental literature. Using quarterly frequency data from 1990q1 to 2018q4 and employing advanced econometric techniques suitable for handling structural break issues, the empirical results reveal that globalization through economic and social channels, agricultural output expansion, and greater population density trigger atmospheric pollution in the long run. Besides, the relationship between renewable energy consumption and atmospheric quality is found to exhibit an inverted U-shape. In this regard, the threshold share of renewable energy in the total final energy consumption level of India is predicted at around 45.75% which is comparatively higher than India’s current renewable energy consumption share. Furthermore, urbanization is evidenced to stimulate the deterioration of India's atmospheric quality, both in the short- and long-run. In line with these major findings, some policy-oriented recommendations are made.